supercycle

For ten years, we lived in a predictable rhythm: halving → pump year → dump year → accumulation. But in 2026, this 'metronome' broke. Bitcoin no longer obeys the miners' calendar.💯💯💯

1. The death of the 'halving effect'
Previously, halving was a supply shock. But today, 94% of all BTC is already in circulation. A reduction in daily mining from 450 to 225 BTC in 2024 is a drop in the ocean when daily trading volume is measured in billions.🤔🤔🤔

U.S. Banks vs Crypto Exchanges
Right now, intense negotiations are happening between U.S. banks, crypto exchanges, and regulators. Banks are aggressively lobbying against the Stablecoin Bill and the Clarity Act, primarily because stablecoins on exchanges are offering 5–6% APR, directly competing with traditional bank deposits.
Banks’ Core Fear
Banks have submitted research claiming:
~$1.3 trillion could exit small and mid-sized banks
~$6 trillion impact on the overall banking industry
Their concern is liquidity outflows if people prefer stablecoins over savings accounts.
Government’s Position
Despite “doom-and-gloom” projections from banks, the U.S. government has not shut this down. Instead, it issued a hard deadline: end of February for banks and exchanges to reach a balanced framework.
This short deadline is telling. If the government wanted delays, it could have dragged this out for months just like ETF approvals.
Why Timing Matters (Politics)
With U.S. midterm elections in November, the current administration cannot afford to alienate its pro-crypto voter base. A complete failure of crypto legislation would be politically damaging.
Positive narratives, rising markets, and success stories matter ahead of elections.
Market Impact Scenarios
❌ Stablecoins removed from the bill → short-term market pullback
❌ Clarity Act killed → strong negative market reaction
✅ Balanced Clarity Act passes → bullish sentiment, confidence boost, and potential rally
Bigger Picture: The 36-Year Innovation Cycle
Historically, every ~36 years we see a shift in how money, markets, and transactions work. Interestingly, this cycle also concludes around February 20.
The recent fear, dumping, and extreme bearish sentiment may not be random it may be part of a well-timed transition phase.
The final days of February could shape crypto’s trajectory for the rest of the year.
Let’s see how it unfolds.
#AltSeasonComing #supercycle #polkadot #BTC #clariyact