opsibitcoin

Today, $2.65 billion worth of Bitcoin options expire — and the price is sitting around $3,000 below max pain.

Key figures:
• 33,135 BTC (~$2.65 billion) expire today at 15:00 WIB on Deribit (KuCoin, Nov. 5; Deribit data as of Nov. 4)
• 24,912 calls vs. 8,223 puts — three times as many calls as puts
• Max pain is $79,000 (according to KuCoin, Optionly, and AlphaFinance); BTC is around $76,000 this morning
• DVOL is 38 — the options market is pricing in a move of around ±5.3% over the coming week

What I think this means: max pain isn’t a price target; it’s a map of positioning. As long as BTC stays below $79,000, most of the calls expiring today will end up worthless — which explains why $79,000 feels like both a magnet and a wall. But expiries often trigger moves just before settlement at 15:00 WIB, not afterward. One thing to keep in mind: these figures are for Deribit only; the total across all venues is even larger.

What I’m watching: whether BTC can approach $79,000 before 15:00 WIB, and how the market reacts after expiry — especially since US NFP is on the agenda tonight at 20:30 WIB.

Do you think today’s expiry is more likely to keep the price below $79,000, or could it trigger a big move?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#Bitcoin #OpsiBitcoin $BTC