onchainanalysis

Analysis date: 17/02/2026 ~12:42 EET
The check was performed according to the author's 20-point PREPUMP model (4 evaluation blocks).
Minimum for signal: 15/20 + complete pass of Block 1.
At the moment — no coin passes the filter.
Block breakdown.
1️⃣ Universe filter: there are almost no candidates
Criteria:
Binance Spot

Bitcoin just touched its mining cost.
That line under price? It’s not decoration. It’s the economic floor.
Miners spend real money; energy, hardware, debt.
If $BTC trades below production cost for long, weaker miners fold.
Hashrate drops.
Difficulty adjusts.
Sell pressure shrinks.

The system self-corrects.
Look back you see same trend:
2018 → bottomed near mining cost.
2020 → wicked below, snapped back.
2022 → tagged it again.
Now? We’re back in the zone.
That’s not random. That’s Bitcoin’s incentive engine.
And here’s the kicker:
Mining cost trends up over time.
More competition.
Bigger operations.
Higher capital intensity.
The baseline keeps rising — which means long-term value drifts upward with it.
Is it a guaranteed bottom? No.

But historically, when price hugs production cost, risk/reward shifts.

This is where panic peaks… and positioning begins.

Bitcoin isn’t driven by headlines.
It’s driven by math.
And the math is getting interesting.
Let me know what you think in the comments
#bitcoin #CryptoMarket #OnChainAnalysis

$BTC is sitting nearly 50% below its October peak.
Fear & Greed just printed 8.
Analysts are throwing out $10K targets.
And yet… retail isn’t gone.
This isn’t just volatility.
This is a cycle stress test.
Let me break down what I’m actually seeing beneath the noise.
The First Thing That Stood Out
While mainstream headlines scream “crypto winter,” something quieter is happening:
Retail flows on exchanges like Coinbase show dip buying.
Spot balances in $BTC and $ETH haven’t collapsed the way they typically do during full-blown capitulation phases.
Now pause there.
In real bear market bottoms (2018, late 2022), retail disappears.
They don’t “buy the dip.”
They uninstall the app.
That hasn’t happened yet.
That doesn’t mean bullish.
But it tells me conviction hasn’t fully broken — and late-cycle corrections often require that final psychological snap.
The $10K Bitcoin Narrative
Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone recently floated the idea of Bitcoin reverting toward $10,000 if equities roll over.
The macro thesis is straightforward:
US equities stretched on valuation
Volatility compressed
Gold and silver gaining relative strength
Liquidity conditions tightening
If the S&P 500 were to retrace sharply, Bitcoin — still behaving as a high-beta liquidity asset — could mirror that downside.
Is $10K insane?
No.
Is it guaranteed?
Also no.
Bitcoin doesn’t move on doom projections.
It moves on positioning, leverage, and exhaustion.
The Indicator I Care About More Than Headlines
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) for long-term holders is sitting around ~0.36.
Translation:
Long-term holders are still comfortably in profit.
Historically, true macro bottoms form when:
Long-term holder NUPL turns negative
Strong hands go underwater
Seller exhaustion completes
We are not there yet.
And that’s important.
Cycle lows tend to form when even the most convicted wallets feel pain.
MVRV Just Entered Accumulation
According to on-chain data providers like CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has re-entered the historical accumulation zone.
The last time this happened in size? Mid-2022.
And what followed wasn’t an instant rally.
It was another leg down before the real base formed.
Low MVRV = undervaluation.
But undervaluation ≠ immediate reversal.
Sometimes it just means you’re early.
I’ve learned that lesson personally.
40%+ of Supply Underwater
Roughly 43% of circulating supply is currently at a loss.
That matters more than short-term price action.
When nearly half the network is underwater:
Weak hands feel pressure
Forced sellers emerge
Strong hands begin absorbing
But here’s the nuance:
Extreme fear can persist longer than most traders can remain solvent or emotionally stable.
That’s where most accounts get chopped.
What This Actually Feels Like
This doesn’t feel like 2019.
Psychologically, it resembles mid-2022:
Retail still somewhat engaged
Long-term holders still profitable
Macro tightening but not broken
Narratives shifting from hype to fundamentals
Valuations being repriced
That tells me we’re likely in a compression phase, not necessarily the final flush.
What I’m Watching Now
I don’t care about dramatic price targets.
I care about:
Are long-term holders distributing or accumulating?
Is exchange supply declining?
Is leverage getting flushed from the system?
Are funding rates resetting structurally?
Are miners holding or selling into weakness?
On-chain absorption shows up before headlines flip.
That’s where edge lives.
My Positioning (Bias, Not Advice)
I’m not aggressive yet.
I’m:
Selective
Patient
Watching for emotional exhaustion
Looking for structural deleveraging
If NUPL turns negative…
If long-term holders go underwater…
If retail sentiment truly breaks…
That’s when asymmetric opportunity historically appears.
What Most Traders Are Missing
Everyone is debating:
“Is $10K coming?”
“Is the bull market over?”
The better question is:
Are strong hands absorbing supply quietly?
Markets don’t bottom when fear appears.
They bottom when fear exhausts.
We’re close.
But we’re not fully broken yet.
And in every cycle I’ve studied, the final flush always feels unnecessary — almost unfair.
That’s usually the opportunity.
If this breakdown helped you see beyond the headlines, follow for more cycle-based analysis.
I don’t trade narratives.
I track positioning.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoCycle #OnChainAnalysis #Marketstructure

$BTC The 7-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has sharply fallen below 1, highlighting that realized losses now dominate on-chain flows. Historically, sustained breaks under this threshold have aligned with periods of emotional capitulation rather than structural cycle tops. Price compression near local support combined with accelerating realized losses signals that selling pressure is behavioral, not structural. In prior cycles—2019, 2020, and 2022—these patterns marked late-stage panic events, where weaker hands were forced to sell while long-term holders accumulated supply, setting the stage for future recovery.
Currently, divergence between loss realization and price action suggests exhaustion among short-term participants. A reclaim of the ratio above 1 would confirm a transition from capitulation to accumulation, signaling that buyers are absorbing excess supply and positioning for the next cycle. Conversely, failure to stabilize could trigger a final liquidity sweep before macro continuation. On-chain metrics don’t predict direction—they map sentiment, and right now psychology is stretched, creating a potential inflection point. Traders watching the ratio, market depth, and realized losses can gain a strategic edge by understanding where emotional selling may end and structural support begins.

#BTC #OnChainAnalysis #MacroInsights

How to follow "Smart Money" wallets

Ever wondered if there’s a secret shortcut to seeing what the most successful traders are buying before it becomes headlines? It feels like having insider info, but it’s totally public!

Imagine you're trying to pick a winning stock, but instead of guessing, you could peek into the portfolios of the most successful investors.

That's essentially what 'Smart Money' wallets are in crypto - public addresses belonging to entities with a consistent track record of profitable trades.

We can track their on-chain movements, like when a big whale scoops up a significant amount of BNB.

But, the common mistake is just copying their trades without understanding the full picture, leading to confusion when prices don't immediately soar.

Therefore, the real secret isn't just seeing what they buy, but understanding when they buy it, and what else they’re doing.

Is it a long-term hold, or part of a larger strategy?

Instead of blindly following, use their movements as a signal to do your own research into the project.

This way, you're not just copying, but truly learning and building your conviction, which feels incredibly empowering because you’re making informed decisions, not just guesses!💡

#SmartMoney #CryptoTrading #WalletTracking #OnChainAnalysis #tradingtips

- Disclaimer: Sharing knowledge and insights as part of learning and growing together. For educational purposes only, not financial advice.

DeepSnitch AI has gained serious momentum, and it’s not hard to see why. It sits at the intersection of two powerful themes in crypto right now: AI and on-chain intelligence. A platform that claims to analyze wallet behavior, detect unusual activity, and highlight patterns before they become trends will naturally attract attention in a market built around information asymmetry.
Why is this going viral