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4 Steps to Spot a New Bull Cycle in any Stock

I spent years thinking that investing success required deep financial knowledge. After working in investment banking and earning complex finance certifications and a masters degree I assure you it does not. Finance is important but it's just part of the solution.

The market runs on probabilities.

The goal is to find companies with much to gain and very little to lose.

Today we will cover how to identify when a company is ending its bearish cycle to begin a powerful new bullish cycle.

📉 Cycle Endings

To detect a cycle ending we must evaluate 4 KEY factors.

A clear prior downtrend exists.
The company has solid prospects or interesting turnaround options despite recent struggles. Avoid extreme cases or frauds.
The price establishes a bottom in a logical zone. Previous volume existed there creating a new support level.
A bullish pattern emerges.

Let us look at Moderna as an example

MRNA Real Time example:

1. Clear prior downtrend

The chart speaks for itself. Since mid 2021 Moderna has fallen steadily wiping out almost 95% of its stock market value.

2. The company has good prospects

Only 2 out of 11 analysts covering the stock are pessimistic.

Most rate it a hold with little upside expected right now. In 2026 we will see a cancer therapy in partnership with Merck which could act as a massive catalyst. Additional improvements include widely used vaccines aggressive cost reductions and a promising high margin rare disease pipeline. All these factors lay the groundwork for a potential turnaround this year.

3. The price establishes a significant bottom

The market has started to price in these developments. We saw a 150% rally over 3 months before the current correction. This was driven primarily by Phase 3 results for the Merck partnered cancer treatment. These results validate their mRNA technology for non infectious applications and could revolutionize cancer treatments. Their combined flu and COVID vaccine also received approval.

Beyond these fundamental successes heavy short interest betting on bankruptcy triggered a short squeeze forcing bears to cover their positions.

The $23 support level was crucial. Nobody managed to break the original 2019 IPO price.

4. A bullish pattern emerges

After dropping 95% and finding support at the IPO price the stock formed a Multiple Bottom demonstrating the strength of the floor and cleanly breaking the $35 resistance zone.

That breakout sent the price surging to the $55 level where historical resistance pushed it back down to $35.

This created a great entry opportunity in the pullback. By placing a tight Stop Loss just inside the Multiple Bottom we can target a 50% short term profit and much larger medium term gains.

🤔 Great but, Is this the first time this has happened?

Of course not. We have seen the exact same setup on many other occasions like GROY :

FSS

OR DOCU

These patterns carry a very high probability of success. They usually offer a risk to reward ratio of at least 3 to 1. You must trust your tight Stop Loss and never risk more capital than necessary.

Have you spotted any other stock that could be now in the bottom of the cycle? Would love to read you in comments!
#LearningTogether #TrendingTopic #analysis

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🧠 Trading Psychology: Summary of the Video (David)
Mark starts his analogy at 0:46, comparing trading to casinos. He argues that if casinos can achieve consistent profits dealing with random outcome events (like in a hand of blackjack), traders can do the same.
The key to this success, as detailed from 1:07, is to acquire the right mindset. This mindset requires belief, not just thought, that anything can happen at any moment.

Central Topic: How to identify when the market changes 'game', why setups suddenly stop working, and how institutions adapt before everyone else.
1. THE MOST IMPORTANT CONCEPT OF PROFESSIONAL TRADING
The market is not continuous; it operates in regimes.
Most traders lose money because:
Learn a setup.
It works for a while.
The market changes regime.
The trader keeps forcing the same model.
Institutions do not operate fixed setups. They operate regimes.
2. WHAT IS A MARKET REGIME?

I just downloaded the app, everyone chooses to ask where to start investing and how to do it. Here is the money I have, right? I just transferred it to funding.