$ETH is continuously consolidating weakly after breaking below EMA20, showing a downward continuation pattern on the 4H level. The price repeatedly tests above the key support area of 1993-2000, but the rebound is weak, and signs of buying absorption are not obvious.
🎯 Direction: Hold cash
Market analysis: The price has broken below EMA20 (2054) and EMA50 (2161), confirming a daily downtrend. The 4H chart shows that after breaking below the key support at 2100, the price is fluctuating chaotically within the range of 1993-2046, lacking a clear directional breakout.
Core logic: Current open interest is stable, with a slightly negative funding rate (-0.0124%), but there are no significant signs of a short squeeze with a sharp rise in open interest. The deep imbalance is -9.35%, with sell orders (Asks) piling up above 2011, forming a short-term resistance wall. RSI (42.4) is in a neutral to weak zone, not entering oversold territory, and there is still room for downward momentum to be released.
Core contradiction: Although the price has gained temporary support above the previous low of 1993, the rebound highs are gradually decreasing (2046 -> 2038 -> 2020), showing weak consolidation. The buy/sell ratio (0.46-0.50) remains below 1, indicating that active selling pressure dominates. ATR (58.9) shows that volatility is still high, but the current volume is shrinking, waiting for a breakout to choose direction.
Trading plan: Wait and see. A valid break below the previous low of 1993 (logic invalidation point) will open up downward space to 1825 (previous low). Conversely, if there is a strong recovery above EMA20 (2054) with a rise in open interest, then consider a trend reversal to go long. The current win rate is insufficient, with risk control as the priority.
Trade here 👇
$ETH ---
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