calculationguide

Bitcoin Power Law Mean Reversion Math
Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) process, continuous-time “damped spring” model

Bitcoin’s long-run “fair value” follows a power law in time (log(FV_t) = a + b·log(t)). Price wanders around this trend, but the deviation tends to decay back toward zero.

Key quantities
d_t = log(P_t) − log(FV_t)
z_t = d_t / σ (σ = residual std dev)

Model (the backbone)
Treat deviations as an AR(1) / OU-like process:
d_{t+1} = φ d_t + ε_{t+1}, with |φ| < 1
E[d_{t+k} | d_t] = d_t · φ^k

Mean reversion speed
ρ(k) ≈ e^(−λk), with λ = −ln(φ)
Half-life h = ln(2)/λ ≈ 133 days ⇒ φ ≈ 2^(−1/133) ≈ 0.995 per day

Practical meaning (Feb 2026)
The “pricing error” shrinks roughly exponentially:
50% closes in ~4–5 months (1 half-life)
75% closes in ~9 months (2 half-lives)
90% closes in ~14–15 months (~3.3 half-lives)

Physical analogy
Damped spring: restoring pull ∝ −dt, noise shocks = ε.

Bottom line
Bitcoin behaves like a noisy, slow mean-reverting process around its power-law trend. Bigger |z| today implies stronger expected pull toward trend value over the next 6–18 months.
#FOMO #Reversion #Correction #CalculationGuide #TradeHalt
$BTC
$ALICE
$ADA

$SUI 🦅🦅🦅#DYOR 📢
♻️♟️SUI /USDT trading pair is experiencing a moderate bearish trend, with a 2.04% decrease in the last 24 hours. The current price is $4.3340.

Technical Analysis

Technical indicators show a bearish signal, with the 7-day EMA ($4.3076) below the 25-day EMA ($4.2452).

Key Levels

Resistance: $4.4900
Support: $3.8590

Trade Strategy✔️

Short Position➡️ Entry at $4.3340, target at $4.2181 (2.7% profit), and stop-loss at $4.4360 (2.4% loss).

Long Position➡️Entry at $4.0752, target at $4.3340 (6.3% profit), and stop-loss at $3.9147 (4.0% loss).

#CalculationGuide

➡️Risk-Reward Ratio (Short): 1:1.13 (2.4% risk, 2.7% potential profit)
➡️Risk-Reward Ratio (Long): 1:1.58 (4.0% risk, 6.3% potential profit)
➡️Position Size: 2.5% of total portfolio value
#BURNGMT #2024withBinance #Debate2024

Guys i was think this calculations definitely help you for open short🔰🔴😇

To calculate the position size for a short trade based on your risk percentage, you can follow this step-by-step method:

Determine your total trading account balance. For example, $10,000.

Decide the percentage of your account you are willing to risk on this trade. For example, 1% risk

risk = capital × risk percentage
= $10000 × 1%
= $100

Identify your short trade entry price. For example, $50 per share.

Determine your stop loss price above the entry price. For example, $52.

Calculate the risk per share:

risk per share = Stop Loss Price - Entry Price = $52 - $50 = $2 risk per share.

Calculate position size:

Position Size = Risk per Trade / Risk per Share
= $100 / $2 = 50 shares.

This means you can short 50 shares while risking only 1% of your account if the price hits your stop loss.

This calculation helps you manage risk precisely by sizing your position according to how much you are willing to lose per trade 

So if you think about this something change please comment bellow

Thank you ladies & gentle❤️🫡
So Waiting next information post📃
Follow blockchain yaso✅
#sellshort #RiskCapital #CalculationGuide