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The global financial ecosystem is witnessing a historic realignment. As SpaceX prepares for its staggering $1.75 trillion Nasdaq debut, the sheer gravity of the "IPO of the century" is sending shockwaves straight through the cryptocurrency market.
Historically, Bitcoin thrived as the ultimate high-beta playground for speculative tech capital. But a massive structural shift is underway, driven by the collision of Elon Musk’s space ambitions, an insatiable AI boom, and a sudden liquidity crunch in crypto.
### The Capital Flight: From Digital Gold to Orbital Dominance
Wall Street is preparing to absorb SpaceX's massive $75 billion primary share offering. To free up the immense liquidity required for this oversubscribed institutional launch, fund managers are aggressively rotating out of highly liquid, speculative assets.
The primary casualty? Bitcoin. As capital relocates from decentralized code to physical, state-of-the-art space infrastructure, Bitcoin has faced severe downward pressure, violently crushing down through the critical $70,000 support level.
### The AI Boom Hijacks the Narrative
The correction is being heavily accelerated by the underlying architecture of the SpaceX offering. Following its strategic merger with xAI, SpaceX is no longer being priced merely as a rocket-launching business. It is being marketed as the ultimate dual-play: global satellite dominance via Starlink, backed by space-based AI data centers.
With multi-billion-dollar compute deals already locked in with tech giants like Google and Anthropic, SpaceX represents a tangible, cash-generating AI infrastructure play.
> **The Market Shift:** For institutional investors who previously held Bitcoin as a proxy for disruptive innovation, the choice has flipped. They are abandoning the high volatility of crypto to chase the guaranteed data-center revenues powering the artificial intelligence revolution.
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### The Irony of SpaceX’s Balance Sheet
Adding a layer of financial irony to the equation is SpaceX's own corporate treasury. The company holds an estimated $1.3 billion in Bitcoin.
As Bitcoin's price tumbles—partially crushed by the capital rotation toward the IPO itself—the falling value of these digital assets has created a localized drag on SpaceX’s pre-IPO net profits. Institutional underwriters are actively using this crypto dip as leverage to demand discounted subscription entry points during the roadshow.
Ultimately, the market is witnessing a profound evolutionary step in tech investing. The abstract promise of decentralized digital scarcity is temporarily losing its luster, heavily outmatched by a $1.75 trillion orbital AI powerhouse that investors simply refuse to miss. #BTC

March 11, 2026
Bitcoin trades near $70K after rebounding from a correction as institutional inflows resume.
BTC started 2026 above $90K, corrected on macro uncertainty, then rebounded as investors reassessed risks.
Ethereum remains the second-largest crypto, supported by DeFi, tokenization and smart-contract adoption.
BTC Price Performance Over the Past 30 Days
ResearchAlongside Bitcoin, Ethereum ETH-USD has also shown resilience so far in 2026. Despite broader market volatility, Ethereum has remained the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, supported by continued adoption of its blockchain for decentralized finance (DeFi), tokenization and smart-contract applications.
Escalating geopolitical tensions in 2026 have intensified global market volatility. Since February, U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and retaliation have raised fears of a wider Middle East conflict involving regional proxies and attacks on energy infrastructure. The crisis has heightened concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments, making energy supply disruptions a key risk. Oil prices briefly spiked above $100 per barrel on supply concerns, fueling inflation worries and risk aversion across financial markets.Against this backdrop, several investors are increasingly turning to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin as a potential macro asset. The key question is whether this shift represents a structural change or simply another cyclical rally. Let's delve deeper.
Geopolitics and the Crypto in 2026
So far in 2026, the cryptocurrency market has experienced significant volatility but remains resilient, with Bitcoin (BTC - Free Report) still trading at historically elevated levels. Bitcoin started the year above $90,000 in January 2026 before undergoing a correction amid macro uncertainty and shifting institutional flows. However, the market rebounded in early March as institutional inflows resumed and investors reassessed macro risks. By March 10-11, 2026, Bitcoin is again trading close to $70,000, highlighting continued investor demand despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty.#BTCUSDT

Core Mechanisms of Impact
Interest rate cuts influence the crypto market through three primary financial channels:
Increased Liquidity (M2 Money Supply): Lower rates reduce borrowing costs, encouraging credit expansion and increasing the global money supply. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a 0.70+ correlation with global M2 liquidity growth. As more capital enters the financial system, a portion flows into speculative and high-growth assets like crypto.Weaker US Dollar (DXY): Rate cuts typically lead to a decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY) as yields on US Treasuries become less attractive to international investors. Since Bitcoin is primarily priced in USD, a weaker dollar inversely pushes BTC prices higher. Current data shows the DXY at 98.74, with analysts predicting a potential 10% decline if a sustained cutting cycle begins.Lower Opportunity Cost: When the "risk-free" rate (Treasury yields) drops, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin decreases. Investors seeking higher returns are forced to move further out on the risk curve, benefiting the crypto sector.
Historical Performance and Context
Historical data from previous Fed cycles provides a roadmap for potential price action:
The 2019-2020 Cycle: When the Fed began cutting rates in July 2019, Bitcoin initially experienced a "sell the news" correction. However, as rates hit the "zero bound" in March 2020 alongside massive liquidity injections, Bitcoin rallied from approximately $5,000 to over $60,000 within 12 months—a 1,100% increase.Correlation with Tech Stocks: Crypto maintains a high 30-day rolling correlation (currently 69% to 92%) with the Nasdaq 100 (^IXIC). Rate cuts that boost tech valuations generally provide a tailwind for crypto prices.
Current Market Outlook (March 2026)
As of March 4, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintains the target rate at 3.50%–3.75%. Market expectations from the CME FedWatch Tool indicate:
March 2026 Meeting: An 82–86% probability of a pause (no change), as the Fed monitors inflation and tariff-related economic shifts.June 2026 Outlook: A 50.7% to 66% probability of a 25-basis-point cut.Price Action: Bitcoin is currently trading near $71,458, having recovered from a recent dip to $61,000. The market appears to be "pricing in" the transition from a restrictive to a neutral policy stance.#BTC

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is showing some signs of overheating, but onchain data suggests otherwise.
• Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $111,970 on May 22, but retraced to $110,700, with analysts noting mixed signals on market overheating.
• Funding rates and other metrics suggest a “healthy upward phase.”
Bitcoin’s [BTC $108,964] price recorded a new all-time high of $111,970 on May 22. However, BTC price retraced shortly after to trade at $110,700 at the time of writing.
Despite the correction, there are mixed signals about whether the price rally is overheated or whether this is a healthy pullback.
Bitcoin “still not overheated” — analyst
Bitcoin is not showing any signs of being overheated despite reaching new all-time highs this week, with several analysts pointing to fundamentals suggesting Bitcoin could rise further.
“Overheating indicators such as the funding rate and short-term capital inflow remain low compared to previous peaks, and profit-taking by short-term investors is limited,” said CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan in a May 22 Quicktake note. #BTCPrediction #TrumpTariffs

• On Friday we have seen Ethereum rally a bit, but we don’t seem to be able to really take off to the upside and therefore think you have got a situation where we will continue to try to work off some of the excess froth from the big move to the upside.
• The 200 Day EMA sits just below, so that could offer quite a bit of support, especially with the $2400 level sitting just below there.
• Ultimately, this is a market that I think will remain noisy, but I do think that we are trying to do everything we can to break out to the upside. The $2800 level is a bit of a ceiling, and an area where we have seen a lot of noise previously. If we can break above that, then Ethereum will really start to take off to the upside.
• At that point, we could go all the way back to the all-time highs over the next several months, but keep in mind that Ethereum needs a little bit of help from external pressures, mainly in the form of Bitcoin

•Buying Dip
Going forward, buying dips will. probably remain the key way to get involved in Ethereum, and it’s likely that short-term buyers are looking to get involved.

• Bitcoin whale inflows to Binance have declined as prices picked up, indicating reduced selling activity.
• Bitcoin's realized cap has grown by 3%, increasing by $30 billion in April, yet it remains below the highs reached in November and December.
• BTC long-term holder supply has seen a slight drop for the second time in May, indicating increased spending from this cohort.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $103,600, down 0.5% on Wednesday amid a decline in the general crypto market. Bitcoin whale inflows to Binance have dropped, signaling a shift toward holding despite increased spending among long-term holders (LTH).
Bitcoin whales resume holding amid decline in LTH supply
Bitcoin inflows from whale addresses on crypto exchange Binance have experienced a consistent decline in the past month.
Whale inflows on the exchange were $5 billion in April, coinciding with the start of Bitcoin's price recovery. However, it plunged to $3 billion in May, reflecting a notable decrease in large-holder activity. The decline in whale inflows suggests a shift toward holding among this group.
However, retail inflows increased from $12 billion to $15 billion over the same period, still below levels seen during previous market peaks.
The downtick in whale selling pressure aligns with the growth of Bitcoin's realized cap, which maintained a 3% monthly increase, adding $30 billion in April, according to data from Glassnode.
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Michael Ebiekutan
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Bitcoin whales resume holding despite increased long-term holders' spending
Cryptos | 05/15/2025 00:10:48 GMT
• Bitcoin whale inflows to Binance have declined as prices picked up, indicating reduced selling activity.
• Bitcoin's realized cap has grown by 3%, increasing by $30 billion in April, yet it remains below the highs reached in November and December.
• BTC long-term holder supply has seen a slight drop for the second time in May, indicating increased spending from this cohort.
#BTC

Bitcoin faces a volatile trip among shifting liquidity conditions, with bulls getting squeezed first, new BTC price analysis predicts.
Bitcoin threatens a trip to long-term range lows before “full bull” takes over BTC price action.
In his latest analysis on X, released on Oct. 10, analyst Cole Garner said that he sees “capitulation incoming” for Bitcoin BTC$60,965.95 markets.
BTC price “range lows” still on the table
Bitcoin still stands to gain from global liquidity trends, but what comes first might shock the average trader.
Investigating current onchain phenomena, Garner flagged liquidity declining in the short term, which could be reflected in BTC price performance.
“Liquidity onchain is tightening: I smell capitulation incoming,” he summarized.
“A common pre-requisite to full bull.”
BTC/USD 8-hour chart with Tether Ratio Channel
>Bitcoin kicks the can on “Uptober”
As Cointelegraph reported, some market participants still hope that BTC/USD will deliver a turnaround from its sideways moves before the end of October.
Related: Bitcoin traders don’t expect new highs until the 200-MA becomes support
One theory argues that even China’s stimulus rethink could spark a fresh wave of capital inflows toward crypto.
Zooming out, bullish BTC price predictions also remain in place. This week, longtime trader Peter Brandt said that he sees BTC/USD reaching $135,000 within the next year, provided that crucial support holds.
Bitcoin traded near $61,000 at the time of writing, down 4% month-to-date, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
#btcupdates2024 #BTC/USDT. #bitcoin #BTC

Bitcoin price extended its increase above the $63,500 zone. BTC even cleared the $64,200 resistance zone. However, the bears were active below $64,500. It traded as high as $64,419 and the price is now correcting gains. There was a move below the $64,000 and $63,500 levels. The price dipped below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $61,723 swing low to the $64,41 high. Besides, there was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at $63,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin price is now trading above $62,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.