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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is extending its 2-month consolidation since the February 02 Low, receiving a small boost by the 2-week ceasefire deal. This boost wasn't enough to even test the March High, so the long-term bearish outlook remains intact.
BTC has been within a 6-month Bear Cycle and most likely has another 6 months left. The Fibonacci Channel since 2018 shows that each Bear Cycle extended between at least five Fib levels: 2018 between 0.786 - 0.0 and 2022 between 1.0 - 0.382. The 2022 one was -7% less than 2018, so if this holds we are looking at the current Bear Cycle to bottom after completing a -70% total decline.
This matches perfectly the 0.382 Channel Fib and the 1W MA500 (black trend-line), which is the next MA support after the 1W MA350 (red trend-line) which was where the 2022 Bear Cycle bottomed and two below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) which as where the 2018 one bottomed.
As a result, we expect Bitcoin's next Low to be around $47000 (1W MA350) with a final bottom around $38000 (1W MA500) being possible but depends on circumstances that we will monitor weekly and update here when needed.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Exactly 3 months ago (January 09, see chart below), we gave a strong Sell Signal on Binance Coin (BNBUSD), while the price was consolidating on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), ready to start Stage 2 (Bearish Leg 2) of the Bear Cycle:

Well the picture is now even more clear as not only has it completed Bearish Leg 2 but is completing Accumulation Phase 2 and about to start Bearish Leg 3. This continues to follow the blueprint of the 2022 Bear Cycle and the pattern that's emerging (as then) is a Channel Down (blue).
The 1D MA100 (green trend-line) continues to act as the Cycle's Resistance and the next technical Support is the 1W MA250 (red trend-line), which is where the 2022 Bear Cycle bottomed.
Our Targets remain intact: Target 1 at $525 (the 0.236 Fibonacci) and $400 (almost -71.85% total decline from the Cycle Top, as in 2022).
Notice also the strong symmetry between the two Channel Down patterns. They exhibit similar declines on their Bearish Legs, with the 2022 one around -47% each. So far the current Bearish Cycle had Bearish Leg 1 at -42.63% and Bearish Leg 2 at -40.60%. Assuming the -71.85% total decline from the Cycle Top stands, then Bearish Leg 3 should be around -43.51%, indeed highly symmetrical with the other two.
To conclude, The 2022 Bear Cycle bottomed then the 1W RSI hit 30.00 (oversold), so once this takes place again, it will be a solid place to start buying long-term regardless of the price.
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$BNB #bnb #BinanceCoin #BNBUSDT #BNBUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has formed a Bullish Megaphone on the 1H time-frame with its latest Bullish Leg starting after the U.S. - Iran 2-week ceasefire. Regardless of what follows next news-wise, this is a short-term pattern that provides a sell opportunity right on its top.
Since this rally started on the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line), that's what the Target should be, despite having the previous correction (Bearish Leg) reach the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Short-term Target 69200.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down since the very start of this Channel Down in October. Right now it appears to be within the consolidation phase that is about to start the 3rd Bearish Leg of the pattern.
The Channel Down is not an uncommon pattern during Bear Cycles as the very same structure dominated the 2022 Bear Cycle entirely. Based on that we may not see the formation break up until the very end of the Cycle and its bottom.
More specifically, it was when the 2022 Channel Down bottomed in November 2022 on its 1W MA350 (red trend-line) and the subsequent rebound broke above its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) that we had confirmation of starting the new Bull Cycle. Note here that the 1D MA100 has been the Bear Cycle's Resistance since October 13 2025 (2nd week of the bear market) and priced the last Lower High rejection (January 12 2026), just like it was the absolute Resistance for the 2022 Channel Down (with the exception of 3 weeks).
Right now the price is consolidating just above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which supported the 2nd Bearish Leg in February 02 and the next one should technically break it and test the 1W MA350 where it should technically start the bottoming process, potentially towards the 1W MA450 (grey trend-line) even within $45000 - 40000.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down since the March 17 local High and only a week ago it formed a 4H Death Cross. The last time this formation emerged was on January 25, during BTC's previous Channel Down that led to a sharp decline, the Bear Cycle's 2nd Bearish Leg.
As a result, it is highly likely to see BTC drop to the 1.5 and 2.0 Fibonacci extensions shortly, as long as the Death Cross holds. Based on that, the immediate short-term Target is $55550.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is following a very cohesive pattern throughout the current Bear Cycle, highly symmetrical and easily distinguishable into Phases. Right now it has flipped again its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) into a Resistance, turning bearish for the short-term as well.
But this is not its most important flip lately. That is turning the February - March Support into a Resistance. Technically a Higher Lows trend-line up until March 27, it has now been flipped into a Resistance after the April 01 rejection (which was also on the 1D MA50.
With the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) intact as a Resistance since October 10 2025, we can see BTC starting its 3rd Bearish Leg of the Cycle so far. Even the 1D RSI is in the same spot as the final week of January.
Given that the previous two Bearish Legs declined by almost the same amount, -38.50% and -36.20%, we expect BTC to follow suit with at least another -36% decline from the March 17 High. As a result, we should see it targeting the psychological level of $50000, which in our opinion will start the long-term bottoming process. Attention, it won't be the bottom but the initiation of long-term accumulation and DCA strategy from long-term investors until the bottom after Summer, which shouldn't be much lower than that.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Obviously nothing is guaranteed in trading/ investing. But as far as Bitcoin (BTCUSD) historic price action is concerned, there is a Buy Signal that has never failed so far. And that is the LMACD Bullish Cross on the 2W time-frame.
Every time BTC had an LMACD Bullish Cross (at or below 0.00) while inside a Bear Cycle (like the one we are currently at), it was the ultimate long-term Buy Signal and technically confirmed the end of the Bear and start of a 3-year Bull Cycle.
Such Bullish Crosses have taken place in May 21 2012, June 08 2015, April 01 2019 and January 02 2023. And as you can see, with the exception of the first one because 2011 was a very short Bear Cycle, the use of the Time Cycles catches the occurrence of these moves exactly! Based on that, the next LMACD Bullish Cross is expected to take place around October 12 2026.
Notice also that those have always happened after the actual Bear Cycle bottom (thus come as confirmations), so based on that it is possible that the market bottoms 1-2 months earlier.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just closed yesterday its first green month (March) following a streak of 5 red monthly candles since the October 2025 All Time High (ATH). So what does this mean for the trend? Is it changing upwards.
As usual to get a better understanding of this the best we can do is look at past Cycles. And as you can see on this chart, green monthly (1M) candles are very rare for BTC during Bear Cycles.
In fact, Bear Cycle 1 (2011) had no green 1M candles (but was the shortest), Bear Cycle 2 (2014) had 1 green 1M candle two times and 2 straight green candles one time, Bear Cycle 3 (2018) had 1 green 1M candle three times and more recently Bear Cycle 4 (2022) had 1 green 1M candle two times and straight green candles one time.
What the above dataset shows is that a Bear Cycle can experience 1 single green month three times and 2 straight green months one time, at most. Meaning that green candles alone are very rare, while 2 straight ones even rarer (only happened 2 times in 4 total years of Bear Cycle activity)!
As a result, we believe that March's (very) limited rise was just a technical pause and that the long-term correction will continue.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a 8-year Bullish Megaphone since the December 2017 Top of that Cycle. Within this pattern we've had two complete Cycles so far (Bear and Bull) and we are currently on its 3rd since the October 2025 Bear Cycle started. Technically that is the pattern's new Bearish Leg.
The 2022 Bear Cycle bottomed just below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, after completing a -77.76% total correction. That was -6% less than the previous Bear Cycle of 2018. Also, both Cycles touched the 1W MA350 (red trend-line) exactly before rebounding to a non-stop Bull Cycle.
If those conditions continue to stand this time around also, BTC should target at least $50000, which will be a near 1W MA350 test. If there is still time in the 4-year Cycle and extends, then it can go as low as $39000 even, which is the 0.786 Fib and still above a potential -71.70% (-6% less than the previous Bear Cycle).
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Ethereum (ETHUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down for the entirety of its Bear Cycle since the August 24 2025 All Time High (ATH). This pattern has so far had two Bearish Legs, both strongly symmetrical.
The 1st declined by -47%, while the second completed a -48.69% total drop. Right now it appears that we are on the standard consolidation phase that kick-starts the next Bearish Leg. As long as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) holds as a Resistance (recorded the rejections of January 13 2026 and October 27 2025), the pattern remains valid.
A new -47% Bearish Leg would put us a little under the April 09 2025 Low, so due to the presence of that Support, our next Target is at $1390.
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$ETH #ETH #Ethereum #ETHUSD #ETHUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has had a Higher Lows trend-line supporting it that started on the December 2018 Bear Cycle bottom. Last month the price tested it and held. That's part of the long-term Rising Wedge pattern as shown on the chat.
What's also shown is that BTC is no stranger to this pattern. A similar 7-year Rising Wedge broke to the downside during the 2018 Bear Cycle. Even though by the time of the Higher Lows test, BTC had already dropped by -70%, more than almost the -55% of the current (2026) Bear Cycle, today's one is more aggressive as it almost tested the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Bear Cycle bottom, whereas 2018 was on the 0.236 Fib and bottomed on the 0.382.
This is why we've argued in previous analyses that the 0.5 Fib level is a much more likely candidate for a new bottom and sits around $45000.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Dogecoin (DOGEUSD) has been historically trading within a multi-year Channel Up since its first day. Right now it has completed 2 months of trading exactly on its 1M MA100 (red trend-line), which has been the Support of the previous Bear Cycle.
Holding this could start DOGE's new Accumulation Phase, which is a stage that has historically emerged on every single one of its Bear Cycles. On the previous one, Doge bottomed before Bitcoin, while on the first two Cycles, after. In any event, those three previous bottoms form a striking sequence, which becomes very obvious with the use of the Time Cycles tool.
Those bottoms have coincided with the 1W RSI entering its multi-year Support Zone (except March 2019). And those Time Cycles show that this Bear Cycle bottom has high probabilities of already being priced now (March 2026).
At the same time, the Gaussian Channel has only 'recently' (December 2025) turned red, which has coincided with the Accumulation Phases of the last two Bear Cycles.
As a result, Dogecoin has high probabilities of starting a prolonged 1.5-year sideways/ ranged trading where long-term investors accumulate at any pace, until the strong rallies of the Bull Cycle, which usually come very fast and aggressive.
So, good time to start accumulating Doge again?
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$DOGE #DOGE #Dogecoin‬⁩ #DOGEUSDT #DOGEUSD #signals

This is no secret. We all know it. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) tends to rise when the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY, black trend-line) is cheap and drops when it rises. No rocket science here, their negative (inverse) correlation is natural as BTC is valued in USD.
Based on this, what this chart shows though that the Dollar is about to start a new multi-year rally while Bitcoin has already been within its new Bear Cycle since October 2025.
Technically the USD bottomed in June 2025 and started forming a prolonged Support base so the lag it technically natural. This has happened during almost every Cycle, BTC didn't start its Bear Cycle exactly when DXY bottomed and started rising as it's not 'ceteris paribus', other market dynamics play their role too. But the value of the USD has indeed the most important effect macro-wise.
So now that we've determined that this can happen, what's next? Panic? Not exactly. First, the 2011 Bear Cycle has shown that BTC can bottom even though the DXY keeps rising. 2014 has shown that DXY can accelerate rallying aggressively but BTC can continue to a 'normal' Bear Cycle bottom without collapse. 2018/19 has shown quite similar results, when DXY kept rising but much less aggressively even though BTC had already started a new Bull Cycle.
The real problem is the 2022 period. BTC bottomed almost exactly when DXY peaked and started correcting violently. But of course this was a very special situation as the Inflation Crisis of that period drove global markets down violently as the aggressive money supply increase (printing) to recover from the COVID lockdowns inflated prices. Coupled with the Ukraine - Russia war that dealt a hit to the economies through historic energy price spikes, we got that situation: The Dollar has to peak and correct aggressively in order for BTC to bottom.
So is this time similar to 2022 (Iran war = projected inflation but of course no massive money printing before as during COVID) or to the three Bear Cycles before? Statistically the latter. And that implies that the most probable outcome is for the DXY to continue rising, while Bitcoin extends its Bear Cycle but on a slower pace until the eventual bottom in Q4 2026.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is technically half-way through its Bear Cycle by all known metrics, both in terms of price and time. What we haven't shown you yet (actually we have published this thesis 6-7 years ago and it's since been forgotten) is the underlying Channel Up approach on a Cycle horizon that has gone unnoticed to most.
As you can see, ever since its first complete Bear Cycle in 2011, BTC has been forming Channel Up patterns ending at the bottom of the next Bear Cycle.
- Channel Up 1: 2011 - 2014
- Channel Up 2: 2014 - 2018
- Channel Up 3: 2018 - 2022
- Channel Up 4: 2022 - now
Right now we (obviously) are on the Bear Cycle that will complete Channel 4. It's bottom, based on this model, is projected to be within the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Cycle bottom and a potential -70% decline. Which translates to a Bottom range within $45000 - $37500.
That's because Channel Up 1 bottomed above the 0.382 Fib, while the next one (Channel Up 2) bottomed exactly on it. Channel Up 3 broke below the 0.383 Fib and bottomed just above the 0.5 Fib, so similarly the next one (Channel Up 4) should bottom on the 0.5 Fib (at least). The -70% estimate is derived by the -7.00% decreasing rate that each Bear Cycle had compared to the previous one (exception the 2018 Bear Cycle).
Additionally, the $45k Target would be within BTC's 1W MA350 (red trend-line) and 1W MA500 (black trend-line), as since 2018 every Bear Cycle bottom is -150MA lower.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently around its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), trading within a Rising Wedge pattern since the February 06 Low. This resembles the pattern of December - January that eventually broke downwards after a test-rejection on its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and the Lower Highs trend-line from the All Time High (ATH).
The 1D MACD though has made a Bearish Cross already, which is however close to be negated following yesterday's Trump announcement on the 5-day ceasefire. Last time that happened was on January 19, after the 1D MA100/ Lower Highs rejection.
So are we within an early January consolidation or after a new Top? Whatever the situation may be, BTC seems to be constrained to a max cap around $77000 and as April begins should technically start the new Bearish Leg as per this dominant Bear Cycle pattern.
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$BTC #bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to break down its 2-month consolidation and start the next Bearish Leg, which will technically be the 3rd of the current Bear Cycle. That should be part of the market's final descent towards the bottoming process.
This process is what we will call on this idea the 'Mayer Multiple and Fib MAs Sweet Spot'. And as you understand that is the common Buy Zone of the MM Bands (MMBs) and the Fib MAs.
As you see, every BTC Bear Cycle dropped on average by at least -50% after entering the MMBs Buy Zone (green). All approached the Fib MA (red trend-line) with the last Cycle even touching it and bottoming there. The 2011 Bear Cycle even hit Multiple 8 (blue) and bottomed.
According to all the above the most optimal combination for this Cycle's buy ('Sweet Spot'), would be $40000 (in my opinion late overextension for practical reasons). That would be in the middle of the Fib MA and Multiple 8 and still not -50% from the moment of the MMBs entrance.
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$BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTC #BTCUSDT #signals

The BTC / Gold ratio (BTCUSD/XAUUSD) has been a cornerstone of our long-term research. As you can see the symmetry between its Bear Cycles is astonishing. Each Bear Cycle since 2014 has lasted for exactly 396 days. And last month, it completed again 396 days from the January 2025 High. No to this symmetry's surprise, March is so far on a strong green 1M candle.
So based on the ratio's cyclical behavior, we may have a bottom, meaning that it may be time to rotate some of Gold's massive profits into Bitcoin, which has dropped by more than -50% already from its All Time High (ATH). To avoid confusion, it doesn't mean that both BTC and Gold can't decline at the same time, it just implies that it may be time for Bitcoin to drop at a lower rate than Gold. Which isn't unreasonable given that Bitcoin has been within a Bear Cycle for 6 months already (and will gradually start being a bargain long-term), while Gold may have just started it's own Bear Cycle.
The 1M CCI seems to agree with that potential Cycle bottom as it hit and rebounded on the Lower Lows trend-line that goes back to 2015. The Time Cycles help at identifying all prior bottoms. In addition to that, the ratio just formed a 1D MA200 (black trend-line) / 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) Bearish Cross, which last time it was formed (November 2022) it was right at the bottom of the previous Bear Cycle.
So time to dump Gold and buy Bitcoin??
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#BTC #bitcoin $BTC #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

More than 4 months ago (November 07 2025, see chart below), we gave a massive long-term Sell Signal on XRP (XRPUSD), after it got rejected on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line):

The price action responded immediately and has been on a strong decline ever since. It is time to revisit this and put it into a greater context comparing the current Bear Cycle to the previous two.
Following February's rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and the inability of XRP to recover its 1W MA100 (green trend-line), we see strong similarities with February - March 2022 and March - May 2019. In both cases this price action was past the middle of each Bear Cycle, so technically we should be in a similar position now as well (past the 0.5 Time Fibonacci level).
A break below the 1W MA200 would signal the final drop and bottom formation upon touching the 1M MA100 (red trend-line). Given the 6-year Higher Lows trend-line just below it, we can formulate a realistic Buy Zone technically.
Our $0.9000 Target still stands, as it is on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and the trajectory of the 1M MA100, which is the combined Support on which the June 13 2022 bottom was formed. Taking into account also the 6-year Higher Lows trend-line, we can estimate a total Buy Zone for a long-term buy within 0.9000 - 0.8000.
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$XRP #Ripple #xrp #XRPUSDT #xrpusd #signals

No fancy multi indicator analysis here. No elaborate terminology. Just one indicator, which makes Bitcoin (BTCUSD) crash every time it flashes.
That's the Gaussian Channel (GC), which we haven't used in a long time but every time it historically turned red since the 2014 Bear Cycle, BTC crashed by a little over -52.00% from that moment.
And it just turned red this week. In 2014 once it did, the market crashed by another -52.87%. In 2018, it crashed by -52.55% and in 2022 by -52.31%. So if we count -52.00% from this week's High, we get $36500 and that's not an unreasonable bottom projection based on that very reliable model.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on a strong short-term rise ahead of today's Fed Rate Decision, getting the buy side of the market excited. And they should be. Not because of this short-term counter trend rally, which is normal within long-term correction but because based on the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator, half of the Bear Cycle is already over!
The NUPL on the 1W time-frame bounced off the 16.235 level, which is a symmetrical point where all previous three Bear Cycles where on (or almost) their middle. This gets more clear if we take the Time Fibonacci tool and apply it on each Bear Cycle's Top to Bottom. We can se that the 0.5 Fib (middle) matches the NUPL 16.235 contact. If you further add the Time Cycles, it becomes evident that this is a recurring pattern/ behavior.
So the bad news is that the Bear Cycle hasn't bottomed yet but the good news is that we're most likely done with half of it! The NUPL gives historically a solid long-term Buy Signal when it breaks below the -12.000 level and re-tests it. And as we mentioned before, we expect BTC to hit at least its 1W MA350 (red trend-line) as it did on the previous Bear Cycle, which should be below $50000. Long-term buying once we enter September remains time-wise the most optimal strategy based on the 4-year Cycle model.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals