The market is paying more attention to the inventory cycle. With the shift in domestic economic growth, the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure, and the narrowing of fluctuations in real GDP growth, historically, the average duration of the inventory cycle is about 3 years, mainly driven by changes in total demand. The growth rate of real estate investment and exports is highly correlated with changes in inventory. In terms of the performance of major asset classes, commodities and interest rates have obvious characteristics of the inventory cycle, and the A-share market usually bottoms out ahead of the inventory cycle. Future outlook: China will transition from active destocking to passive destocking, and pay attention to relevant signals; A-share market volatility will increase, but structural opportunities will increase.