Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the spotlight this week, popping above $97,000 for the first time since November 2025 and reigniting speculation about whether the market is ready to press past six figures again. After clearing the psychologically important $94,000 level, momentum looked set to carry BTC back to $100,000 — until on-chain metrics pointed to a stubborn hurdle tied to recent buyers. Pseudonymous analyst Darkfost flagged the key issue on X on January 16: the average realized price for short-term holders (STHs) — investors who bought within the last 1–3 months — sits roughly at $102,000. That means most of this cohort would still be underwater if price stays below that mark. Darkfost said his calculation includes an adjustment for about 800,000 BTC recently moved by Coinbase, which can skew supply metrics. Why that matters: STHs are typically the most reactive participants in the market. As price approaches their average cost basis, those investors face two options — hold and wait for further upside, or sell once they break even. Darkfost pointed to recent exchange inflows as evidence that short-term profit-taking has already been underway, and suggested the STH realized price will be a pivotal level to watch once the current wave of selling subsides. Historically, trading below the STH cost basis can present accumulation opportunities, Darkfost added — but with an important caveat: during full-fledged bear markets, short-term holders often endure lengthy drawdowns, so buying into such conditions can be risky. Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish echoed the view that the STH realized price is an inflection point. In a recent post on X, Beamish said reclaiming that cost basis would mean recent buyers are back in profit and could help re-accelerate bullish momentum. Conversely, failure to reclaim it would likely keep Bitcoin in a slower “recovery mode” rather than a fresh uptrend. At the time of publishing, Bitcoin was trading around $95,300, with little movement over the past day — leaving the STH realized price near $102,000 as the looming line-in-the-sand for whether this rally turns into a sustained push toward $100,000 and beyond. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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