Every quarter I do a rebalance of my portfolio. Last time, $OPG almost got cut by me.
The logic behind rebalancing is—using preset target weights, I bring over-allocated or under-allocated assets back to the target proportions. My targets are BTC 50%, ETH 25%, stablecoins 5%, and other altcoins 20%. The “other altcoins” bucket is further broken down into different baskets like AI+Crypto, DeFi blue chips, L2s, and so on.
At the settlement of last quarter, #OPG was showing an unrealized loss, and since its weight was 3% below the target, theoretically I should have topped it up. But around the same time, I noticed a couple of new opportunities—one AI Agent–focused project had just launched, and the narrative exploded; and an established DeFi project was about to roll out a major version upgrade, with strong expected catalysts. These two opportunities made me hesitate—should I release that OPG 3% and swap into something with stronger short-term catalysts?
So I did one thing: I broke this decision into three questions.
First, has the logic for building the OPG position changed? No. My judgment on the technology, team, and track hasn’t changed—what didn’t happen was the data coming to fruition. That means I’m not selling because the fundamentals deteriorated; I’m selling purely to rotate into something else.
Second, are the new opportunities clearly more likely to win? Of the two new opportunities, one is at an earlier stage, and the other has already been priced in heavily by the market. The win probability isn’t significantly higher than OPG; it’s just that the topics are hotter.
Third, am I being influenced by short-term hype? Most likely. OPG isn’t in the spotlight, but the new opportunities are. The instinct is to switch—but instinct isn’t a good advisor.
After answering these three questions, I decided not to move on from OPG. Instead, I topped it up to 3% according to the rebalancing principle. For the new opportunities, I used a separate small test position and didn’t touch my existing holdings.
This rebalance made me realize— the biggest enemy of long-term holding isn’t losses, it’s the “temptation to rotate.” Every time a new opportunity appears, it shakes the discipline built earlier. If you can hold up against the temptation to rotate, then in the end you can achieve long-term returns from projects like @OpenGradient . I’ll continue holding $OPG this quarter, and we’ll test again next quarter.
The logic behind rebalancing is—using preset target weights, I bring over-allocated or under-allocated assets back to the target proportions. My targets are BTC 50%, ETH 25%, stablecoins 5%, and other altcoins 20%. The “other altcoins” bucket is further broken down into different baskets like AI+Crypto, DeFi blue chips, L2s, and so on.
At the settlement of last quarter, #OPG was showing an unrealized loss, and since its weight was 3% below the target, theoretically I should have topped it up. But around the same time, I noticed a couple of new opportunities—one AI Agent–focused project had just launched, and the narrative exploded; and an established DeFi project was about to roll out a major version upgrade, with strong expected catalysts. These two opportunities made me hesitate—should I release that OPG 3% and swap into something with stronger short-term catalysts?
So I did one thing: I broke this decision into three questions.
First, has the logic for building the OPG position changed? No. My judgment on the technology, team, and track hasn’t changed—what didn’t happen was the data coming to fruition. That means I’m not selling because the fundamentals deteriorated; I’m selling purely to rotate into something else.
Second, are the new opportunities clearly more likely to win? Of the two new opportunities, one is at an earlier stage, and the other has already been priced in heavily by the market. The win probability isn’t significantly higher than OPG; it’s just that the topics are hotter.
Third, am I being influenced by short-term hype? Most likely. OPG isn’t in the spotlight, but the new opportunities are. The instinct is to switch—but instinct isn’t a good advisor.
After answering these three questions, I decided not to move on from OPG. Instead, I topped it up to 3% according to the rebalancing principle. For the new opportunities, I used a separate small test position and didn’t touch my existing holdings.
This rebalance made me realize— the biggest enemy of long-term holding isn’t losses, it’s the “temptation to rotate.” Every time a new opportunity appears, it shakes the discipline built earlier. If you can hold up against the temptation to rotate, then in the end you can achieve long-term returns from projects like @OpenGradient . I’ll continue holding $OPG this quarter, and we’ll test again next quarter.