According to Blockworks, Bitcoin miners are bracing for a significant reduction in per-block rewards, which are set to halve from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC later this month. This fourth halving event in the network's history could pose a significant challenge for even the most well-equipped mining firms, and potentially make the already slim profit margins of home-based miners even slimmer.
The situation is straightforward for miners: if the halving increases Bitcoin's price, their investment is justified. However, if it doesn't, smaller miners could be left with idle ASICs, high energy bills, and little chance of recouping their costs. Some home-based miners have shared their concerns on the r/BitcoinMining subreddit, stating that Bitcoin would need to reach between $70,000 and $140,000 for them to break even or maintain their current profit margins post-halving.
There are other factors that home-based miners need to consider beyond the price of Bitcoin. One such factor is Bitcoin's hash rate, which has been growing at an increasing rate throughout the network's history. The hash rate is essentially a measure of the competition to mine Bitcoin blocks. High electricity prices can also pose a challenge, especially as power grids in the US and elsewhere struggle to meet the demand for compute-intensive AI.
Individual miners have very low odds of successfully mining Bitcoin on their own. Many choose to join mining pools, which coordinate and share rewards among several miners, while also charging varying fees. The prices of miners vary, and more-efficient ASICs are released over time. Some miners have given up hope altogether, with several forum posters suggesting that prospective miners gradually purchase Bitcoin over time, a process known as dollar cost averaging.
Two miners told Blockworks that using mining rigs for home heating was one way to make home-based mining profitable. ASIC miners emit heat as they run, and some Bitcoin enthusiasts have developed ways of capturing this heat and circulating it through their homes. However, those already involved in mining are unlikely to be deterred by the halving, with many having planned for this event for some time.