Bitcoin critic and economist Peter Schiff has kicked off 2026 with a bearish outlook on the world’s largest cryptocurrency, arguing that Bitcoin’s underperformance in 2025 signals deeper structural weakness ahead. In a January 1 “Year-End Special” forecast video, Schiff said Bitcoin failed to rally despite a wave of bullish narratives, suggesting that upside momentum has been exhausted.
Bitcoin Underperformed in 2025, Schiff Says
Schiff pointed to 2025 market performance to support his argument. While traditional financial assets posted strong gains, Bitcoin ended the year in negative territory.
According to Schiff’s analysis:
Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 13%
S&P 500 gained 16.4%
Nasdaq Composite climbed 20.4%
Gold surged 64%
Silver more than doubled
In contrast, Schiff noted that Bitcoin declined over the same period, despite widespread optimism at the start of the year.
“Everybody on CNBC was pounding the table when the year began on Bitcoin,” Schiff said. He referenced bullish narratives such as:
A “Bitcoin president”
A potential U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve
Heavy corporate Bitcoin buying
Strong growth in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs)
“Bitcoin was one of the only things that was down on the year,” he added.
Bitcoin ETFs and Strategy Signal Weakening Demand
Schiff highlighted Bitcoin ETF performance as a major concern. He claimed that Bitcoin ETFs closed out 2025 down just over 7.5%, sharply underperforming both equities and precious metals.
He also pointed to Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), widely viewed as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy, as further evidence of weakness. According to Schiff:
Strategy finished 2025 at a new 52-week low
The stock was down 47.5% for the year
It was 67% below its 52-week peak
Schiff estimated Strategy’s five-year average Bitcoin cost basis at around $75,000. With Bitcoin trading near $87,000, he argued that the company’s returns undermine claims of strong long-term compounding.
“That’s about a 16% gain — roughly 3% a year over five years,” Schiff said.
“Good News Is Already Priced In”
At the core of Schiff’s bearish thesis is the idea that Bitcoin failed to rise despite overwhelmingly positive news throughout 2025.
“If something doesn’t go up when everybody thinks it’s going to go up, that’s a pretty good indication that it’s going to go down,” Schiff said.
“If a market can’t go up on good news, that means all that good news is already priced into the market — and that means all that it can do is go down.”
He claimed Bitcoin ETFs have shifted from being net buyers to consistent sellers, signaling weakening institutional demand.
Schiff Predicts $50,000 Bitcoin Price
Based on these factors, Schiff set a downside target of approximately $50,000, which he first projected in mid-December 2025. He reiterated that view in his 2026 outlook, urging investors to reduce exposure.
“Get rid of your Bitcoin above $87,000,” Schiff said, predicting that capital will rotate away from cryptocurrencies and into precious metals.
Broader 2026 Outlook: Gold and Silver Over Bitcoin
Schiff’s broader macroeconomic outlook for 2026 includes:
Slower economic growth
Persistent inflation
Increasing political pressure on monetary policy
He believes these conditions will continue to favor gold and silver while putting pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.
As Bitcoin supporters remain optimistic about long-term adoption, Schiff maintains that recent price action tells a different story — one of fading demand and growing downside risk.
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