heclamining

The silver $XAG market just crossed a line.
Not sentiment.
Not speculation.
Policy.
February 2026 may be remembered as the month the U.S. government quietly admitted what the market has denied for years:
Silver is structurally underpriced — and the free market price is no longer trusted.
Here’s what changed.
1. The U.S. Silver Price Floor Is Real
According to reports confirmed by U.S. State Department officials, Washington is establishing a price floor mechanism for strategic minerals — including silver.
Let that sink in.
If silver trades below a defined threshold:
Tariff adjustments activateTrade policy steps inStrategic stockpiles deploy capital
This is not theory. It’s architecture.
The Structure
55 nations involved in discussions11 bilateral agreements signed (EU, Japan, Mexico among them)A $12 billion strategic reserve fund (“Project Vault”) announced
Governments do not impose price floors on assets that are in surplus.
They do it when:
Supply security mattersMilitary and tech dependence is risingMarket pricing is distorted
This is a tacit admission:
The “free market” silver price has been artificially suppressed.
And now Washington is building a backstop.
2. Hecla’s 30% Premium: The Paper Price Is Fiction
The cleanest proof doesn’t come from analysts.
It comes from producers.
Hecla Mining — the largest silver producer in North America — just reported:
Net income up 9x year-over-yearRecord operational performance
But here’s the number that matters:
COMEX reference average: $54.83Hecla’s realized selling price: $69.28
That’s roughly a 30% physical premium.
Industrial buyers are bypassing exchanges.
They are going directly to mines — paying above “spot” — because delivery certainty matters more than screen price.
When Samsung and other manufacturers negotiate directly with producers, it means one thing:
They do not trust the exchange to deliver.
Even more telling?
Hecla is divesting a $600M gold $XAU asset to double down on silver $XAG — despite gold trading near $5,000.
Capital flows reveal conviction.
3. APMEX: The Shortage That Was “Over” — But Isn’t
On February 17, the CEO of APMEX sent a letter to customers.
For nearly a month:
Shipments were delayedProduct selection was reducedStaff increased 25% to handle demandWeekend orders surged to 7x normal levels
The largest U.S. retail dealer was effectively gridlocked.
Yes, APMEX now claims operations have normalized.
But normalization coincided with a violent price smash.
Demand cooled because price collapsed — not because supply improved.
When silver resumes upward momentum, retail pressure returns instantly.
This wasn’t a one-off spike.
It was a stress test.
And it revealed fragility.
4. February 27: COMEX Under Pressure
Despite a brutal 46% price drop in late January — widely interpreted as an attempt to kill in-the-money options — the effort failed.
There are currently:
35,000 in-the-money call contracts
Equivalent to roughly:
175 million ounces of silver.
Registered silver available for delivery?
Approximately 98 million ounces.
If even a fraction of holders demand physical settlement, the math fractures.
Now layer this on top:
Shanghai physical silver trading at a 20% premiumMines selling at a 30% premiumCOMEX silver around $78
The arbitrage is obvious.
Buy on COMEX.
Take delivery.
Sell into industrial demand at higher real-world pricing.
The incentive to drain vaults is enormous.
The Bigger Picture: A New Cycle Is Starting
Gold has reclaimed $5,000.
Silver is back near $78.
China reopens after Lunar New Year on February 24.
COMEX First Notice Day lands February 27.
Those dates matter.
Not because of hype.
Because of flow.
Silver is entering what can only be described as the dawn phase of a structural repricing cycle.
The signal is no longer on trading screens.
It’s in:
Government price floorsProducer premiumsRetail dealer stressIndustrial direct sourcing
Ignore the red candles.
Watch what manufacturers pay.
Watch what governments guarantee.
When policy steps in to defend price,
the market has already admitted scarcity.
And this time, the backstop is public.

🔔 Insight. Signal. Alpha.

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*This is personal insight, not financial advice.
#Silver #COMEXUpdate #HeclaMining