fedratedecisions

🗓️ After a strong US NFP report, expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts have been pushed back Markets now see June as the earliest realistic start for easing.
🗓️ CPI inflation is the next key trigger. Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, and the upcoming print is expected to cool slightly by around 0.1%
🗓️ The market reaction framework is clear:
🔥 Hot CPI: reinforce the "higher-for-longer" view, supportive for DXY, negative for equities.
💧 Cool CPI: brings back early cut expectations, weighing on DXY and supporting risk assests.
🗓️ With growth steady and the labour market firm, inflation has become the main variable driving policy expectations.

#CPIWatch #USNFPBlowout #DXY #FedRateDecisions

Truflation is showing US inflation near 0.68% while layoffs, credit defaults, and bankruptcies are all rising, yet the Fed still says the economy is strong.

If you look at the economy right now and compare it with what the Fed is saying publicly, there is a very clear disconnect building.

The Fed keeps repeating that the job market is still strong. But real data coming out from layoffs, hiring slowdowns, and wage trends is telling a different story.

We are already seeing cracks forming beneath the surface. The labor market is not collapsing overnight, but it is clearly weakening faster than what official statements suggest.

The same disconnect shows up in inflation data.

The Fed continues to say inflation is still sticky and not fully under control. But real time inflation trackers like Truflation are now showing inflation running close to 0.68%.
$XRP
That level is not signaling overheating.

It is signaling that price pressures are cooling rapidly and the economy is moving closer toward disinflation and potentially deflation if the trend continues.

And deflation is a much bigger risk than inflation. Inflation slows spending but deflation stops spending. When consumers expect prices to fall, they delay purchases, businesses cut production, margins shrink, and layoffs accelerate.

That is when economic slowdowns turn into deeper recessions.

Another area flashing warning signs is credit stress. Credit card delinquencies are rising. Auto loan defaults are rising. Corporate credit stress is rising.

These are late cycle signals that usually appear when households and businesses are already struggling with higher rates.

Bankruptcies are also moving higher across sectors.

This shows that the cost of capital is starting to break weaker balance sheets. Small businesses and over-leveraged companies are feeling the pressure first but that pressure spreads if policy stays tight for too long.

So the bigger question becomes policy timing.

If inflation is already cooling…
If the labor market is already weakening…
If credit stress is already rising…

Then holding rates restrictive for too long can amplify the slowdown instead of stabilizing it.

Monetary policy works with a lag. Which means by the time the Fed reacts to confirmed weakness in lagging data, the damage is often already done.

That is the risk the market is starting to price in now. This is no longer just about inflation control.

It is about whether policy is now overtight relative to real-time economic conditions.

And if that is the case, then the next phase of the cycle will not be driven by inflation fears… It will be driven by growth fears and policy reversal expectations.

That is why the Is the Fed too late? question is starting to matter more for markets going into the next few months.

#WarshFedPolicyOutlook #FedRateDecisions #FedRateCut

Lately, every corner of crypto Twitter and Binance Square is buzzing with the same claim — that the Fed’s rate cuts will trigger a massive altcoin rally. But history suggests it’s not that simple.
When the first rate cut arrived in 2024, it sparked a sharp market rally — the kind that made everyone believe a new bull cycle had begun. Yet by September, that enthusiasm collapsed into a classic pump-and-dump pattern. It wasn’t sustainable growth, just a temporary wave of optimism.
Then came November, when Trump’s election victory injected fresh energy into the market. Ethereum (ETH) rallied hard again, but this time, it was more about politics than fundamentals. For a brief moment, it felt like momentum was back.
But December reminded us how fragile hype can be. That surge quickly turned into a prolonged eight-month correction, with ETH losing more than 60% before finding stability.
Fast forward to 2025 — momentum has improved, and prices have recovered well. ETH is still up over 60% since the first rate cut, showing real strength. Yet, technical indicators suggest a possible 15–20% correction ahead — not a crash, but a market reset that often comes after steady rallies.
Rate cuts are often misunderstood. They don’t necessarily mean liquidity is flooding the markets. More often, they signal that the economy is cooling and that money is being reshuffled, not expanded. The relief can lift risk assets temporarily, but the ride is rarely smooth.
Adding to the uncertainty are the upcoming Trump–Xi tariff deadlines. A single headline or unexpected policy shift could flip the market’s direction overnight.
So while the hype machine calls this the start of “alt season,” the charts — and history — tell a different story. Rate cuts can light the spark, but macroeconomics still control the fire.
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$TRUMP

Traders are exiting their bets on a July Fed rate cut following the release of the June US job data. The US unemployment rate dropped below expectations, while the country also added more jobs than analysts expected.
This further strengthens the Fed’s case to wait and see the effects of the tariffs rather than rushing to cut rates.
Traders Increase Bets Against A Fed Rate Cut In July
Polymarket data shows that there is a 94% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged following the July 30 FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, CME FedWatch data shows that traders have also exited their bets for a rate cut this July.

As we reported earlier, the odds for a 25-basis-point (bps) Fed rate cut rose to around 25% amid hopes that Jerome Powell and the FOMC would bow to pressure from Donald Trump. However, the odds have sharply dropped to 4.7% following the release of the US Job data.

US Bureau of Labor data shows that the total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, way above the expected 110,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, below expectations of 4,3%.
The market had been pricing in hopes of a July Fed rate cut based on these expectations since a declining labor market could motivate Powell and the FOMC to cut rates at the July 30 meeting.
Powell himself had left the door open to a July interest rate cut when he spoke at the ECB forum on Central Banking in Europe earlier this week. The Fed Chair remarked that he couldn’t say yet whether a July Fed rate cut would happen or not, and that it would depend on incoming data.
This US job data suggests that there is no need for the Fed to rush into cutting rates, as the labor market remains solid. Powell has hammered on this for a while, declaring that they are in a good position just to wait and assess the impact of the Trump tariffs.

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