2025 khatam hone ko hai, aur agar is saal crypto ne kuch clearly sikhaya hai, to wo ye ke Bitcoin price forecasts kitni spectacularly wrong ho sakti hain.
Saara saal analysts ne sky-high targets diye. Reality ne un sab ko quietly ignore kar diya.
Year ka sab se dramatic moment tha 10 October ka flash crash, jab Bitcoin minutes me lagbhag $12,000 gir gaya — almost 10%. Sirf 24 hours me $19B+ liquidations hui, aur total crypto market se takriban $500B wipe out ho gaya. Us crash ke baad BTC ek extended downtrend me chala gaya aur apne $126,223 ke all-time high se 30%+ niche trade karta raha.
Is slide ke baad lagta hai ke Bitcoin 2022 ke baad pehli dafa full-year loss close karega — jo bohot kam logon ne imagine kiya tha.
Saala shuru hua tha extreme optimism ke sath. Price targets kabhi dream-like lagte thay, kabhi “possible” bhi. Lekin October ke baad zyada tar forecasts ka aik hi fate nikla: they didn’t age well.
Long-term calls chhor bhi dein — jaise Fidelity ke Jurrien Timmer ka $1B by 2038 ya Larry Fink ka $700K narrative — even short-term aur “conservative” targets bhi reality se kaafi door nikal gaye.
Kuch predictions to outright explosive thay.
Jan3 ke CEO Samson Mow ne February me $1M by end-2025 ka call diya, fiat collapse ke thesis par. Adam Back ne bhi ETF inflows aur limited supply ke base par $500K–$1M ka range discuss kiya. Chamath Palihapitiya ne October tak $500K expect kiya.
Aur sirf crypto maximalists hi nahi — traditional institutions bhi bullish thay. JPMorgan ne October ke start me year-end target $165K tak raise kar diya. Michael Saylor ne crash ke baad bhi late October me $150K ka expectation share kiya, jab ke Strategy ne December me aur $1B ka BTC buy kiya.
Predictions har taraf se aa rahi thi.
VanEck ka $180K Q1 peak, Bitwise ka $200K, Tom Lee ka $200K–$250K, Arthur Hayes ka similar range — list lambi hai.
The humbling truth
Sirf kuch hi logon ne waqt par expectations adjust ki.
Mike Novogratz ne October me target $120K–$125K tak reduce kiya. Standard Chartered ne December me apna forecast $200K se cut karke $100K kar diya.
End result simple hai: almost everyone missed.
Kisi ne thora miss kiya, kisi ne bohot zyada — lekin market ne ek purani reality phir yaad dila di:
Bitcoin models follow nahi karta, charts respect nahi karta, aur narratives se affect nahi hota.
Crypto me prediction dena asaan hai. Sahi hona bohot mushkil.
2025 ke baad industry phir se wahi kar rahi hai — charts redraw, stories rewrite, aur expectations reset.
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