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#XPL 的价格最近为何暴跌？
由于未平仓合约流出 3000 万美元以及永续合约交易者的看跌情绪，XPL 在 24 小时内下跌了 5%。
什么因素可能推动 XPL 的下一轮上涨？
590万美元的强劲现货增持、看涨的Chaikin资金流（0.07）以及看涨的三角形图表形态都预示着潜在的复苏。
等离子[XPL]市场表现疲软，过去一天资产小幅下跌 5%，与过去一个月 47% 的跌幅相比，这是一个重大挫折。
尽管这种看跌趋势仍在继续，但随着更多看涨迹象的出现，价格可能即将复苏。
XPL 的价格为何暴跌？
AMBCrypto 发现，永续合约市场的投资者在过去一天撤回资金并退出头寸，导致 XPL 下跌。
衡量市场情绪的关键指标——未平仓合约在此期间下降了 3000 万美元，总额降至 12.5 亿美元。
这也与社区情绪图表上显示的看跌前景相吻合，该图表表明看好 XPL 的投资者数量下降了 5%，在市场上的比例降至 75%。
尽管此次下跌可能仍是短暂的市场下跌，但图表分析显示，未平仓合约加权融资利率仍保持正值。
截至本文发表时，该指标读数为 0.0329%——这是一个相当高的数字，并且很可能继续呈上升趋势，因为大多数衍生品投资者继续买入而不是卖出。
现货市场进一步看涨
市场看涨情绪在过去几天现货投资者的活动中得到了很好的体现。
过去一天，现货市场已购买价值 590 万美元的 XPL，进一步增强了市场看涨情绪。
技术指标Chaikin资金流向（#CMF ）显示，投资者的购买量在市场上持续稳步上升。
截至报告时，CMF 仍处于看涨区域，读数为 0.07，这意味着市场买入量大于卖出量。
继续朝这个方向发展意味着 XPL 在未来几天内更有可能出现大幅价格上涨。
价格处于看涨通道
价格图表分析表明，该资产正在看涨三角形模式内交易。
这一水平通常被认为会催化价格大幅上涨。在这种情况下，价格走势很可能在触及形态下部支撑位后开始。
此次反弹的最终结果表明，XPL 很有可能在未来几天经历大幅价格波动，并有可能重新回到 1 美元的目标价位。
XPL 要达到这一水平，市场上观察到的看涨势头需要在现货和衍生品方面保持强劲和持续。

XRP price is down almost 8% in the past week, and even though the last 24 hours have been flat, the absence of red cannot be mistaken for strength.
The chart and on-chain data indicate that XRP is under real pressure, despite one group of investors continuing to buy the dip.
Short-Term Holders Keep Buying — But One Group Doesn’t Agree
HODL Waves — a metric that shows how much supply each holding-duration group controls — reveals that two short-term cohorts have been steadily accumulating XRP through the month.
On October 16, wallets holding XRP for 1–3 months controlled 8.94% of supply. As of November 14, they hold 9.17%.
Another short-term cohort, the 1-week to 1-month group, has increased from 3.74% to 5.53% of the supply in the same period.
Despite the XRP price dropping 7.8% over the past 30 days, these groups are accumulating, likely positioning for short-term bounces.
But this buying doesn’t seem strong enough to lift the price for one key reason.
The Hodler Net Position Change — a metric that tracks the amount of long-term investor supply entering or leaving wallets — indicates that long-term holders are selling aggressively. It showed heavy negative flow on November 3, when long-term wallets removed 102.50 million XRP. Instead of easing, outflows continued to rise.
By November 14, the number had jumped to 181.50 million XRP: a 77% increase in long-term selling pressure in less than two weeks.
This is the core reason the XRP price was unable to bounce: short-term buying is being overwhelmed by long-term exits.
XRP Price Feels the Pressure as Big Money Steps Back
On the chart, XRP is still struggling to break above $2.26, a strong 0.618 Fibonacci resistance level. The push higher is weakening because money inflows are fading rapidly.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) — which measures buying and selling pressure — has plunged since November 10. It now sits at –0.15, showing net outflows.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) — which measures buying and selling pressure — has plunged since November 10. It now sits at –0.15, showing net outflows. #CMF
has also broken below a descending trendline, indicating that larger investors are withdrawing rather than adding. When CMF stays negative while breaking trend support, upside attempts usually fail.
If weakness continues, XRP risks losing $2.17, exposing a deeper move toward $2.06. A breakdown below $2.06 would invalidate any short-term bullish attempts.
The only way to regain momentum is a clean daily close above $2.38 — a level that has rejected the price multiple times this month. Clearing it could open a path toward $2.57 and flip the near-term structure bullish.
#XRPRealityCheck #XRPPredictions #bullish
$XRP