btcfellbelow$69

Bitcoin can drop below 40k later this year! But before that, in the short term, we may see a final drop to 58k, followed by a huge bear market rally to 85k. If you are confused, let's take a look at my prediction:

Short-term: 58k (wave A on the chart)
Mid-term: 85k (wave B on the chart)
Long-term: 40k (wave C on the chart)

From an investment point of view, after we hit 40k, that would be a great buying opportunity because Bitcoin will probably go to 200k in the next years!

Why can Bitcoin go to 58k in the immediate short term? 2 very important levels are waiting to be hit. The first is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the previous bear market on the non-LOG scale, and the second is the 200-week simple moving average (SMA). Bitcoin bounced off 60k, but we didn't hit these levels, so that means we probably are going to go down very soon. When Bitcoin hits 58, that would complete the wave (A) of the bear market.

After that we may see a big rise to 85k (wave B), when everyone will think that the bottom is in, and these people may invest all their money into the crypto market. But do not get caught! We want to wait for wave (C). Your entry point is at 40k or lower!

What about all the ETF investors? Let's take a look at the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF chart. To me it looks like a huge trap for all investors that invested in Bitcoin in 2024 and 2025. The banks and huge institutions will probably take all stop losses and liquidity below the current all-time low. Does it make sense to you?

Why do whales need your stop losses? They have an enormous amount of money, and they need your order to get "filled" into the crypto market. They cannot buy Bitcoin from no one. They need your orders to enter the crypto space. That's why they cannot send Bitcoin to the upside, and instead they need to manipulate the price and crash Bitcoin again and again. In other words, they will make much more money by sending the price of Bitcoin down!

Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! I am very transparent with my trades. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
#MarketRebound #BTCFellBelow$69,000Again #BTC #TrendingTopic

Bitcoin is down nearly 50% from its October high.
Retail investors are still buying, Analysts are calling for $10,000. On-chain metrics are flashing accumulation.
Macro is flashing stress And Fear & Greed just printed 8.
This isn’t just volatility, This is a cycle test. Let me share my honest take.

The Part That Caught My Attention First
While headlines scream “crypto winter,” something interesting is happening quietly.
Retail on Coinbase is still buying dips.
Balances in $BTC and $ETH are reportedly equal to or higher than December levels.

Now pause there……

Retail usually disappears during real fear phases, But they’re not
That doesn’t automatically mean “bullish.”
But it tells me something: Conviction hasn’t fully broken. And that matters in late-cycle corrections.

The $10K Bitcoin Narrative
Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone says Bitcoin could revert toward $10,000 if equities roll over.

His thesis is simple:
• US stocks at extreme valuations
• Volatility compressed
• Gold and silver accelerating
• Risk assets vulnerable

If the S&P drops to 5,600 → BTC could mirror toward $56K, And possibly much lower.

Is that insane?

Not really.

Bitcoin is still a high-beta asset, If macro liquidity dries up hard enough, crypto doesn’t float above it.

But here’s where I disagree slightly.
The market doesn’t move purely on doom scenarios. It moves on positioning and exhaustion.

The Indicator I Care About More Than Headlines
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss for long-term holders) Right now it sits at 0.36.
That means long-term holders are still in profit. Historically, real cycle bottoms begin when this metric turns negative.

Translation:
When even the strongest hands are underwater.
That’s when seller exhaustion completes.

We’re not there yet.
Which tells me this phase might still need more emotional damage before the true reset.

The MVRV Accumulation Signal
CryptoQuant says Bitcoin’s MVRV just entered the “Accumulation Zone” for the first time in four years.

Last time this happened? May 2022, And we dropped another ~50% after. That’s the part nobody likes to highlight.

Yes, low MVRV signals undervaluation.

But undervaluation doesn’t mean immediate reversal. Sometimes it means “early.” I’ve learned this the hard way.

43% of Supply at a Loss
This stat matters more than price action, When nearly half the circulating supply is underwater, pressure builds.

Weak hands capitulate.
Strong hands accumulate.
Fear & Greed at 8 confirms it.

But here’s the nuance: Extreme fear can last longer than traders expect, And that’s where most people get chopped up.

My 2 Cents (Not Financial Advice~ Just My Bias)
This doesn’t feel like 2019, It feels closer to mid-2022 psychology.

We’re in the stage where:
• Retail still has some confidence
• Long-term holders are still profitable
• Macro hasn’t fully cracked
• Valuations are being repriced
• Narratives are shifting from hype to fundamentals

That tells me this is a compression phase, Not necessarily the final bottom.

If NUPL turns negative?
If long-term holders go underwater?
If retail sentiment finally breaks?

That’s when I’ll start getting aggressive.
Right now?
I’m cautious.
Selective.
Watching absorption.

What Most Traders Are Missing
Everyone is debating:
“Is $10K possible?”
“Is the bull market over?”

I think the better question is: Are strong hands absorbing or distributing? That answer will show up on-chain before it shows up in headlines.

Final Thought
Markets don’t bottom when fear appears, They bottom when fear exhausts.

We’re close. But not fully broken yet. And in my experience, the final flush is always the one that feels unnecessary. That’s the one I’m waiting for.

If this perspective resonated with you, follow for deeper cycle-based analysis.

I don’t chase headlines.
I study positioning.
#BTCFellBelow$69,000Again #MarketRebound

Bitcoin is currently trading around $70,000 after recovering from a recent low. The market structure on the 4-hour timeframe shows a clear reaction from a liquidity event followed by a controlled move higher. However, price is now approaching a decision point as momentum begins to slow. The interaction between the recent liquidity sweep, the 4-hour bullish FVG, and the higher resistance FVG will likely determine the next directional move.

Liquidity Sweep
Before the recent recovery, Bitcoin performed a clear liquidity sweep below the previous short-term lows. Price briefly traded beneath the range, triggering stops and collecting sell-side liquidity, before sharply reversing upward. This type of move often signals that the market has completed a short-term corrective phase and is ready for expansion in the opposite direction. The strong reaction from that sweep confirms that buyers were waiting below the lows, using that liquidity event as fuel for the upside move.

4H Bullish FVG
Following the liquidity sweep, price impulsively moved higher, creating a 4-hour bullish fair value gap. This zone now acts as strong support and represents the area where buyers stepped in aggressively. As long as Bitcoin holds above this 4H bullish FVG, the short-term structure remains constructive. A retracement into this zone would not necessarily be bearish; instead, it could provide a healthy pullback to rebalance inefficiencies before continuation higher. A clean hold of this support would reinforce bullish positioning.

Decreasing Volume and Momentum
As price pushes upward, volume and momentum appear to be decreasing. The recent candles show less expansion compared to the initial impulsive move off the lows. This slowdown suggests that buyers are becoming less aggressive near current levels, potentially due to overhead resistance. When momentum fades into resistance, the market often either consolidates or retraces before attempting the next leg. This increases the probability of a temporary pullback into the 4H bullish FVG before continuation.

Target
The primary upside target sits at the 4-hour bearish FVG above, around the $74,000 – $75,000 region. This zone represents unfilled imbalance and prior selling pressure, making it a logical magnet for price. Markets are naturally drawn toward inefficiencies, and as long as the bullish structure remains intact, this area serves as the next key objective. A decisive break above that bearish FVG would open the door for further upside expansion.

Conclusion
Bitcoin remains structurally bullish after the liquidity sweep and strong recovery from the lows. The 4-hour bullish FVG provides clear support, while the bearish FVG above acts as the main upside target. However, decreasing momentum suggests that a short-term pullback into support is possible before continuation. As long as the bullish FVG holds, the bias favors an eventual move toward the higher imbalance zone.

$BTC #BTC #BTCFellBelow$69,000Again #MarketRebound