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At this moment, Bitcoin is around the 69,000$ level. As we mentioned in the previous edition, in February there were very high chances of seeing a drop toward 60,000$ or even slightly below, and that level was already reached on February 6.

What we are seeing now in Price Action is a bounce, a short-term recovery after the decline. However, most likely there is at least one more lower low ahead, meaning a new minimum below the one from February 6, before we can have a lasting price stabilization.

From a macro analysis perspective, market structure, the 4-year cycles and investor behavior, the market looks more like a late-cycle and capitulation phase rather than the beginning of a new healthy bull market.

A useful analogy is 2019: strong upward moves can occur, but they are often tactical rallies that run into selling pressure as the price rises. This category of investors largely consists of those who realized later that we are in a bear market and use these short rallies to exit positions.

In such phases, the market tends to be quite unstable, therefore extremely volatile, with sharp recoveries followed by even deeper declines.

Why could this bounce be just an intermediate stage?

There are several key indicators that support the risk-off view and the idea that rallies are more tactical than structural.

a) Liquidity and monetary conditions
Even if some signs of “relaxation” appear in certain areas, the environment remains sufficiently restrictive to limit risk appetite. Crypto generally needs excess liquidity and risk-seeking capital. In its absence, trends move slowly and are easily reversed.

b) Participation and market breadth
In a healthy bull market, not only Bitcoin rises. The market moves broadly, many assets increase together, volumes rise, enthusiasm appears, and capital rotates into altcoins. In a late-cycle regime, we usually see the opposite: capital concentrates in the “safest” assets, which in crypto mainly means BTC, while the rest of the market remains weak.

c) Behavior of long-term holders
In such phases, experienced investors, who are generally the most disciplined, tend to sell into rallies rather than accumulate aggressively. This puts a ceiling on price increases and makes recoveries fragile until the market resets.

How should we approach this stage of the cycle?

This is not the period where you make the most money by being brave, but rather the period where you benefit most from being disciplined.

Recommended strategy for the next phase:

capital preservation and patience
tactical exposure, not aggressive
avoiding leverage and oversized positions
keeping liquidity for panic zones, not for bounces

If the lower low scenario is confirmed, two good opportunities usually appear:

the first is the panic zone, where a relevant local low forms
the second is confirmation, when the market starts building a base and rising with structure rather than just momentum

How do we recognize that market sentiment has changed?

To become more constructive and shift from defensive to offensive positioning, ideally we want to see several signals together, not just rising prices:

clear improvement in participation: more projects and sectors begin to perform, not just BTC
signs of capitulation and reset: many investors exit the market and selling pressure decreases
volatility returning in a “constructive” way, meaning the market starts making consistent moves instead of just spikes
a more favorable macro context for risk, such as looser monetary policy or signs that capital is again seeking fertile ground for growth

Depending on each investor’s style, here are some prudent directions for the coming period:

for conservative investors: exposure exclusively to BTC, plus retained liquidity for opportunities
for active investors: tactical trades on local bottoms and rallies, with controlled risk and a clear exit plan before another series of declines, aiming to reaccumulate lower
for long-term accumulators: DCA in tranches, with emphasis on patience and without the rush to catch the bottom
for altcoin holders: maximum selectivity, in a risk-off regime many projects lose liquidity and underperform both against BTC and against USDT/USDC, even when BTC bounces

Below we have the chart update, which is moving with increasingly determined steps toward the levels we expect.

To recap the essence:

The fact that we reached the 60,000$ area in early February validated the correction scenario. The current bounce is normal.

However, structurally, it is still very likely that we will see a lower low before we can seriously talk about a stable base and a healthy trend resumption.

According to the four-year cycles, BTC is likely to spend at least six more months in a bear market.

As always, this newsletter is for informational purposes and reflects a market interpretation, not financial advice. Each decision should be made individually, according to personal objectives and risk tolerance.

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