📈 S&P 500 HOLDS NARROW UPTREND AS Q1 EARNINGS SEASON KICKS OFF THIS WEEK
The $SPX is down 4.3% on the year but holding a narrow rising trend as Wall Street pivots attention from geopolitics to fundamentals, with corporate earnings now the primary driver of near-term direction.
#SPX Analysts are projecting 13.2% earnings growth for Q1, which would mark the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Historical patterns suggest the actual number could print closer to 19% once beats are factored in, which would be the highest since Q4 2021.
More S&P 500 companies have already issued positive EPS guidance than negative this quarter, at 59 vs 51, the best ratio in five years. Barclays raised its full-year EPS target to $321, Goldman says the recent selloff has created an asymmetric setup to the upside, and Citadel notes sentiment has reset enough to create favorable upside convexity as positioning rebuilds.
JPMorgan kicks things off this week, followed by Bank of America, Netflix, TSMC, and UnitedHealth. By the time the heaviest reporting week arrives later this month, 43% of the S&P 500 by weight will have reported, including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
#etf The Iran ceasefire, falling oil prices, and Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF launch all hit at the same time. The macro setup has not looked this constructive since before the war started