SOL At $100: RSI Hits "Maximum Pain" as Solana Bulls Fight for a Massive Trend Snapback
As of February 4, 2026, Solana (SOL) is trading at approximately $103.77, following a sharp decline that saw it drop below the critical $100 psychological support level for the first time in nearly a year. Technical indicators, most notably the Relative Strength Index (RSI), have reached extreme oversold territory, with daily readings plummeting as low as 25. While these conditions historically signal a high probability of a "relief rally" or a short-term snapback, market structure remains firmly bearish unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.
Key Market Insights
Oversold Exhaustion: The daily RSI sitting near 25–30 indicates that selling momentum is reaching an unsustainable level. This momentum exhaustion often precedes mean reversion, with analysts eyeing a potential recovery toward the $108–$112 range in the short term.
Support & Resistance: Solana successfully defended the $98–$100 demand zone after hitting a 10-month low. However, the path upward is capped by heavy supply at $146, and a daily close below $98 would likely expose a deeper slide toward the $80–$92 cluster.
Long-Term Sentiment: Despite the recent 60% plunge since September 2025, institutional analysts remain bullish. Standard Chartered recently adjusted its end-of-2026 forecast to $250 (down from $310) but maintains a long-term target of $2,000 by 2030, citing Solana's evolution into a backbone for stablecoin micropayments.
Upcoming Catalysts: The Alpenglow upgrade, scheduled for Q1 2026, aims for 150ms finality, which is expected to be a major technical driver for institutional adoption later this year.
Short-Term Price Targets (February 2026)
Bull Case (Relief Rally): Reclaim $115 to confirm a short-term trend reversal, targeting $146.
Bear Case (Continuation): Failure to hold $98 could trigger a drop to macro support at $80.
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