Kamala Harris has seen a significant boost in her chances of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election on Polymarket, while Donald Trump’s odds have tumbled.
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the decentralized prediction market Polymarket has become a hotspot for traders speculating on the outcome.
Looking at the latest data from the platform, the chances of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris winning the election have jumped to 54%, while those of her Republican opponent Donald Trump have dropped dramatically from 72% to 44%.
The shift in market sentiment is not just a small blip; it’s backed by significant financial stakes. According to Polymarket, Vice President Harris now has $66.9 million riding on her victory, even though Trump still holds a larger share at $75.8 million, despite his declining odds.
Looking at individual players, one of the most notable bettors in this market is a trader going by the pseudonym “serus.” The trader holds the largest number of “Yes” shares for Harris, totaling 2,427,229 shares, with a value of approximately $1.31 million. Serus is currently sitting on an unrealized profit of $374,000.
Harris leads Polymarket as crypto support grows
While the Democratic candidate’s surge may have caught the attention of many, the Republican flag bearer still has a considerable following on Polymarket, with his largest backer, under the moniker “50-Pences,” holding 4,376,933 shares.
Elsewhere, in the popular vote predictions market, Harris is also leading with a 77% chance, compared to Trump’s 22%, showing a strong expectation that she might not only win the Electoral College but also secure a majority in the popular vote.
The uptick in Harris’ presidential probability comes hot on the heels of her campaign’s first virtual sit-down with representatives of the crypto industry. On Aug. 15, the Crypto4Harris initiative hosted a virtual town hall that was attended by the likes of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Debbie Stabenow, and investor Mark Cuban.
At the event, Schumer announced that he intends to push for the passing of a bipartisan crypto bill before the end of the year, in a move critics see as intended to curry favor for the Democratic presidential candidate ahead of the November polls.$BTC #Polymarket #BinanceLaunchpoolTON #LowestCPI2021

#Polymarket bettors believe there is a 46% chance Republican nominee Kamala Harris will take the White House from Democrat rival Donald Trump this election as the U.S. Vice President selects Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, according to multiple reports Tuesday morning. 
Walz's Appeal and Selection
Walz, who has served as Minnesota's governor since 2019, was among several prominent figures considered for the vice-presidential spot. Other contenders included Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. Each of these candidates brought their unique strengths to the table, but ultimately, Walz's Midwestern roots and governance experience tipped the scales in his favor.
The decision comes amid a fluctuating landscape of speculation and betting within political circles. On Monday night, bettors on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket had given Shapiro a 57% chance of being Harris' choice, with Walz trailing at 40%. These odds have varied over the past few weeks, with other names like North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper also in the mix.
Although Walz has not been particularly vocal about cryptocurrency, his tenure as governor saw Minnesota enacting legislation aimed at regulating cryptocurrency kiosks. This move, highlighted by the AARP, indicates a level of engagement with the burgeoning digital currency sector, which has become an increasingly significant topic in the political arena.
The cryptocurrency industry has gained considerable attention in recent months, particularly with the Republican Party's recent endorsement. The GOP's platform for the 2024 elections includes strong support for crypto firms and investors, pledging to halt what they describe as an "unlawful and un-American crackdown" on the U.S. crypto industry.
Kamala Harris Campaign Strategy
In response, Harris' team has begun to engage with the #crypto sector, especially after President Joe Biden announced he would not seek reelection and endorsed Harris as the Democratic Party's nominee. 
To bolster her campaign's position on crypto, Harris recently added David Plouffe to her team. Plouffe, known for his strategic acumen, has a history of involvement with the crypto industry. He has served on the Binance Global Advisory Board and as a global strategic advisor for Alchemy Pay, a firm that bridges crypto and fiat currencies.
As the election season heats up, Harris' selection of Walz and her campaign's outreach to the crypto community signal a nuanced approach to addressing diverse voter interests. The combination of Walz's Midwestern appeal and Plouffe's crypto expertise could prove to be a formidable strategy in the race for the White House.

#Polymarket has emerged as a leading decentralized prediction market platform, allowing users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events. From elections to sports and entertainment, Polymarket offers dynamic, data-driven markets that reflect the public’s sentiment in real time.
Here's how it works: Polymarket users buy shares of future outcomes, with prices reflecting the market's belief in the likelihood of an event. For instance, if a "Yes" share is priced at 72c, the market predicts a 72% chance of that outcome. If the event occurs, users win $1 per share.
What sets Polymarket apart from traditional prediction tools like polls? Accuracy. Because real money is at stake, users tend to make informed, data-driven decisions. Polymarket’s predictions often surpass standard opinion polls in reliability.
Plus, with $USDC as its primary currency, you can easily deposit and trade from your crypto wallet or buy shares directly with a credit card.
Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just curious, Polymarket is a fun and profitable way to engage with the future. Bet smart, win big!

In a dramatic turn of events, Elon Musk’s recent endorsement of Donald Trump has caused a seismic shift in the prediction markets, catapulting Trump into the lead for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Following Musk's live speech, blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket saw Trump’s odds soar to 51.5%, surpassing Kamala Harris, who had been the frontrunner for weeks with a now-reduced 47.2%.
This isn’t just another political endorsement—it’s Musk. Known for shaking up industries, markets, and now, apparently, elections, Musk didn’t just voice support for Trump. He made a powerful case for prediction markets like Polymarket as superior indicators of public sentiment. Unlike traditional polls, where people can make predictions without commitment, Polymarket requires users to bet real money, meaning every prediction carries genuine financial risk. In Musk’s view, this “money on the line” approach produces more accurate forecasts because people think twice before putting their cash behind a candidate.
Musk’s bold statement comes at a time when traditional polling is under intense scrutiny. Pollsters have struggled to accurately predict recent elections, leading many to seek alternative methods of gauging public opinion. Prediction markets, according to Musk, could be the future of election forecasting.
With Trump now leading on Polymarket, the 2024 race has been thrown into disarray. Could this surge in support be a lasting shift or just a momentary blip? One thing’s certain: Musk’s influence has once again sent shockwaves through the political and financial worlds alike.
In this fast-changing landscape, where crypto meets politics, the real winners are those ready to adapt. Will Polymarket's data prove to be the crystal ball of elections? Only time will tell, but for now, it seems like the race to 2024 just got a whole lot more interesting!
Join the conversation: #WeAreAllSatoshiNakamoto #MuskEndorsesTrump #BTC #Polymarket #Binance