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General outlook: The crypto market is seeing a broad pullback driven by strong U.S. macroeconomic data. However, on-chain fundamentals and technological innovation remain active.

1. Market Performance

Crypto: Most major coins declined. BTC, ETH, and SOL fell over 3.5% in the past 24 hours.

🔸BTC: −3.75%
🔸ETH: −4.52%
🔸SOL: −5.57%

Tokenized equities: Bucking the trend, some tokenized stocks posted strong gains, notably USAR (+15.24%) and TER (+13.33%).

2. Macro & Policy

🔶U.S. Government: The House passed a funding bill to avert a government shutdown; it awaits President Trump’s signature.

🔶Federal Reserve:
🔸Fed Governor Mester suggested rate cuts of about 100 bps this year.
🔸Economist Robin Brooks expects Kevin Warsh (Trump’s Fed Chair nominee) could cut up to 100 bps ahead of the midterm elections.

🔶U.S. Economy: Stronger-than-expected data (especially manufacturing PMI) pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, pressuring risk assets.

3. Industry News

🔸Galaxy Digital: Reported a net loss of USD 482 million in Q4 2025, far above expectations, mainly due to falling digital asset prices.
🔸Ethereum (ETH): Despite price weakness, network metrics remain strong. TVL in ETH is near all-time highs, and staking queues have reached ~70 days, signaling sustained institutional demand.
🔸BNB Chain: Introduced BAP-578, defining “Non-Fungible Agents” (NFA)—on-chain AI agents capable of autonomous transactions across multiple dApps.
🔸Legal: A Nevada court issued a temporary ban on Polymarket, ruling its event markets constitute unlicensed gambling.
🔸Grayscale: The Grayscale CoinDesk Crypto 5 ETF announced the addition of BNB to its portfolio.

4. Project Updates

🔸Axie Infinity: To launch bAXS (Bonded AXS) as a reserve currency for its new ecosystem, with two bAXS airdrops for AXS stakers. Axie Homeland will be phased out and replaced by Terrariums.
🔸Ondo Finance: Filed with the SEC to offer real-time on-chain trading of U.S. equities post-IPO, aiming for securities-grade transparency.
🔸Ethena: Launched the “Exchange Points” program to reward real trading activity on Ethereal and HyENA.
🔸Chiliz: Plans to launch Fan Tokens in the U.S. and commit 10% of revenue to CHZ buybacks and burns.
🔸Avalanche: Formed a Policy Advisory Committee to promote global crypto regulatory coordination.

5. Additional Legal & Regulatory

🔸UK vs xAI: The UK data regulator is investigating Elon Musk’s xAI over Grok generating sensitive deepfake images.
🔸Coinbase vs Australian Banks: Coinbase appealed to Australia’s Parliament, alleging four major banks are imposing unlawful “de facto bans” by denying services to legitimate crypto firms.

6. Expert View

🔸Wintermute: Views the market as being in a bear phase driven by the macro cycle rather than structural failures (e.g., FTX or Luna). As a result, the downturn may end sooner, with a potential recovery in the second half of the year.
#NEW #Fed $BTC $BNB $SOL

Trend: Bearish (4H & Daily)
Resistance: $78,500 – $79,000
Support: $75,300 / $72,900
Entry: $78,400 – $78,800 (after bearish rejection)
Stop Loss: $79,350
Targets:
TP1: $76,000
TP2: $75,000
TP3: $73,200
Confirm With:
RSI rejection, bearish candle, volume spike, EMA/VWAP resistance
Risk: Max 1–2% per trade
Bias: Sell pullbacks in downtrend
#btc70k #BTC #BTC走势分析 #NEW #analysis

#NEW #trader