grayscale

SUI Extends Losses Despite ETF Catalyst
SUI is trading around $0.95, marking its second consecutive daily decline. The Layer-1 token has fallen more than 16% in February alone and is down roughly 34% year-to-date. The broader crypto market weakness certainly plays a role, but SUI’s inability to react positively to a major structural catalyst suggests sentiment remains fragile.
The key support at $0.87 is still holding. However, a confirmed breakdown below this level could open the door toward the next demand zone near $0.79–$0.78 — an area aligned with the early February swing low.
Grayscale’s Staking ETF: Structural Progress, Limited Immediate Impact
Grayscale officially launched its SUI staking ETF under the ticker GSUI on NYSE Arca. The fund, converted from the Grayscale Sui Trust, is structured to hold SUI directly for staking purposes, offering regulated exposure within a traditional financial framework.
Operational roles include:
The Bank of New York Mellon as transfer agent and administrator
Coinbase, Inc. as prime broker
Coinbase Custody Trust Company as custodian
Each creation unit consists of 10,000 shares.
While structurally significant, the ETF launch has not yet translated into renewed retail enthusiasm. Futures open interest dropped from $554M to $512M within days, signaling position closures rather than fresh capital inflows. This decline in derivatives participation highlights hesitation among short-term traders.
Technical Outlook: Downtrend Still Dominant
On the daily chart, SUI remains capped below the 50-day EMA at $1.28, which continues to slope downward. The 100-day EMA ($1.58) and 200-day EMA ($2.02) also trend lower, reinforcing medium- and long-term bearish structure.
The Relative Strength Index sits at 36 — below the neutral 50 threshold — reflecting sustained seller control. A move into oversold territory could accelerate downside pressure toward $0.78.
However, momentum signals show early stabilization:
MACD histogram has flipped slightly positive near the zero line.
Parabolic SAR sits below price near $0.86, indicating short-term stabilization attempts.
A decisive daily close above the descending trendline would be required to shift momentum toward recovery potential near $1.58. Until then, rallies may remain corrective rather than impulsive.
Market Sentiment: Catalyst vs. Confidence
The divergence between institutional product expansion and price performance reveals a key market dynamic: infrastructure development does not automatically generate immediate demand. Confidence and liquidity must align.
Is SUI forming a base before a broader recovery — or is this merely a pause before another leg lower?
Let’s discuss your outlook in the comments.
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