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$FIL Under Heavy Distribution Despite Strong Fundamentals
Market Structure
FIL remains in a clear bearish market structure, printing lower highs and lower lows on the intraday timeframe. Price has broken down from consolidation and is trading well below short- and mid-term moving averages, confirming trend weakness. Any bounce at this stage appears corrective rather than a trend reversal.
Key Levels
Support: $1.17 → $1.15 (recent sweep & demand reaction zone)
Resistance: $1.25 → $1.30 (prior range support turned resistance)
A failure to reclaim $1.25 keeps bears firmly in control.
Volume & Flow Analysis
The latest sell-off is accompanied by a notable volume spike, signaling aggressive distribution rather than passive drift lower. Price trading below the lower Bollinger Band reflects panic-style selling and heightened volatility. Flow remains skewed to the sell side, suggesting weak dip demand for now.
Technical Signals
MACD remains deeply bearish with a wide negative histogram, confirming strong downside momentum. Price below key EMAs reinforces trend continuation risk despite short-term oversold conditions.
Fundamental Context
Structurally, Filecoin continues to build. Government adoption via Bermuda, decentralized AI storage integration, and leading developer activity all support a strong long-term thesis. However, fundamentals are currently being ignored by the market amid risk-off sentiment.
Outlook
Short-term bias stays bearish, with risk of further downside or extended base-building below resistance. Oversold conditions may trigger technical bounces, but confirmation is required before treating them as anything more than relief rallies.
#FIL #Filecoin