I got 3 cycles so far under my belt and the reason why I fear for many people's portfolios even if the market does bounce back is the following:
It is much easier for founders to built and hype NEW altcoins than to revive old ones.
Altcoin charts like OTHERS/TOTAL3 etc don't show this.
So many are in a scenario where the chart eventually will look like altcoins are pumping or moving sideways.
But in reality one altcoin gets replaced by the other.
Altcoin X with $500m market cap simply dies and gets replaced by altcoin Y with $500m market cap.
Charts that are a global representation of alts (OTHERS for example) will stay the same.
But in reality your portfolio looks much more grim.
This isn't an "altcoins are terrible" problem. It's a "altcoins going into a new cycle" problem.
While this cycle has been lackluster for many, in general altcoins have and can still produce good returns in a cycle when "it's their time".
So at some moments they have effectively been and can be good investments.
Just not when the music stops anymore. That's when the new and hot takes over.
There are exceptions ofcourse. Mostly those that reach into LARGE cap status by the end of a cycle maintain some relevance and ability to bounce back.
But those that never made it that far? They usually die out and the founders themselves actually move on.
Even worse, they are heavily incentivized to do so. It pays off more for them.
It's a painful truth for those that haven't derisked when the cycle was at risk to coming to an end.
The markets will bounce. But many portfolios will not.
#altcoins #ALT