Wednesday, Nov 18 at 2:00 PM ET is the test.
Here is why:
1. The October Meeting Was Already Hawkish.
The Fed held rates at 3.75% - 4.00% on Oct 28, but the vote was 10-2.
Both dissenters — Gov. Cook and Pres. Hammack — wanted a 25bp HIKE right then.
That was before hot CPI.
2. Inflation Got WORSE After That Meeting
Oct CPI: +0.4% vs +0.3% expected
Core CPI: +0.3% for 3rd straight month
Oct PPI: +6.5% YoY — highest since Nov 2022
10Y Yield: >5.1%
DXY: 103+ — 19-month high
The Minutes are from Oct 27-28, so they won't include CPI. But they WILL show how worried the Fed already was.
3. Fed Speakers Are Already Confirming It
Waller: Supports Dec hike, open to 50bp if inflation stays hot
Logan: Calls for at least 2 more hikes
Daly: "In all likelihood, we will need to raise rates"
Goolsbee: Inflation numbers "bordering on disturbing"
4. Market Has Already Decided
CME FedWatch Nov 14:
88.5% — 25bp hike in Dec
11.5%* — 50bp hike
-0% — No hike / Cut
A week ago, no-hike was 23.7%. Now it's ZERO.
What to watch in the Minutes:
If you see words like _"most participants," "persistent," "upside risk," "further tightening"_ — that's hawkish confirmation.
If you see _"patient," "data-dependent," "risks balanced"_ — that's the only dovish hope.
My take: Minutes will reinforce, not reverse, hike expectations. The real question is no longer IF — it's *25bp or 50bp* on Dec 9.
What do you expect from FOMC Minutes?
HAWKISH or DOVISH?
#WillFOMCMinutesReinforceRateHikeExpectations?
Here is why:
1. The October Meeting Was Already Hawkish.
The Fed held rates at 3.75% - 4.00% on Oct 28, but the vote was 10-2.
Both dissenters — Gov. Cook and Pres. Hammack — wanted a 25bp HIKE right then.
That was before hot CPI.
2. Inflation Got WORSE After That Meeting
Oct CPI: +0.4% vs +0.3% expected
Core CPI: +0.3% for 3rd straight month
Oct PPI: +6.5% YoY — highest since Nov 2022
10Y Yield: >5.1%
DXY: 103+ — 19-month high
The Minutes are from Oct 27-28, so they won't include CPI. But they WILL show how worried the Fed already was.
3. Fed Speakers Are Already Confirming It
Waller: Supports Dec hike, open to 50bp if inflation stays hot
Logan: Calls for at least 2 more hikes
Daly: "In all likelihood, we will need to raise rates"
Goolsbee: Inflation numbers "bordering on disturbing"
4. Market Has Already Decided
CME FedWatch Nov 14:
88.5% — 25bp hike in Dec
11.5%* — 50bp hike
-0% — No hike / Cut
A week ago, no-hike was 23.7%. Now it's ZERO.
What to watch in the Minutes:
If you see words like _"most participants," "persistent," "upside risk," "further tightening"_ — that's hawkish confirmation.
If you see _"patient," "data-dependent," "risks balanced"_ — that's the only dovish hope.
My take: Minutes will reinforce, not reverse, hike expectations. The real question is no longer IF — it's *25bp or 50bp* on Dec 9.
What do you expect from FOMC Minutes?
HAWKISH or DOVISH?
#WillFOMCMinutesReinforceRateHikeExpectations?