$BTC broke down to $63,320 overnight, its lowest level since August, and is now trading back inside the range it held all of July and August.
The numbers behind the move
- Spot ETF demand has flipped to supply. US spot Bitcoin ETFs logged a 7th straight session of net outflows on Friday ($185.45M), taking the streak to roughly $1.91B since November 5 (SoSoValue data via Investing.com / Economic Times).
- Leverage got flushed. CoinGlass counted $1.47B in liquidations over 24 hours, $1.31B of them longs, around $677M in BTC alone.
- Macro is not helping. A stronger dollar, rising yields and Fed tightening fears have weighed on risk assets all week.
- Trend: BTC is down more than 20% from late October and heading for a 6th consecutive weekly loss.
Who is selling?
Analyst James Check described this as the 4th capitulation event since the all-time high. The sellers are mostly late buyers who chased $80K+ in September, now exiting at prices they skipped last summer. He calls it a "deep value zone", last seen in February and late June. That does not mean the bottom is in.
The chart (Binance spot, 07:16 ICT)
- Price $64,405, −5.7% in 24h, 24h low $63,320
- Wilder RSI(14): 1D 20.6, 4H 18.3. Deeply oversold on both timeframes
- EMA20 1D ~$73.9K, EMA50 1D ~$77.1K. Price is far below both, so the trend is still down
- Old support at $66,500–67,500 (the 4H base from Friday and Saturday) is now resistance
- Demand: $62,300–63,000, the floor of the July–August range
My plan (small size, counter-trend)
- Bid: $62,300–63,000
- Stop: $60,900, under the July range lows
- Targets: $66,600 / $68,400 / $70,000 (about 2.3R / 3.3R / 4.2R from the middle of the bid)
- Invalidation: a daily close under $61,000 means no trade. Next demand is $57,800–59,100 (June–July lows)
What would flip the picture: ETF flows turning positive for several sessions and a daily close back above $67,500. Until then, rallies into resistance are for trimming, not chasing.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
Where do you think this capitulation ends for $BTC: $62K, $58K, or lower?