🚨 THE FED HIKE IS NOW PRICED AT 100%. HERE IS WHAT CHANGED IN ONE WEEK.
A week ago the odds of a December hike were near 77%. Today the market gives a hold 0%. A 25 bps hike is at 88.5%, and a 50 bps hike is at 11.5%.
What pushed it there:
→ A Fed governor said he backs a December hike whatever the data, and a bigger move could be considered if core inflation runs hot
→ October CPI came in at 0.4% vs 0.3% expected, and core CPI rose 0.3% for the third month in a row
→ Another Fed official said services inflation is rising again
→ PPI rose 0.3%, below the forecast, but the annual rate is 6.5%, the highest since 2022
→ Jobless claims at 200K showed only a small cooling
The market reaction:
→ The 10-year yield climbed above 5%
→ The 30-year auction cleared at 5.441%
→ Stocks still finished the week higher
→ Bitcoin fell below $69K, with ETFs seeing outflows seven days in a row
The question is no longer if the Fed hikes. It is only how much.
$XAU $BTC $ETH
A week ago the odds of a December hike were near 77%. Today the market gives a hold 0%. A 25 bps hike is at 88.5%, and a 50 bps hike is at 11.5%.
What pushed it there:
→ A Fed governor said he backs a December hike whatever the data, and a bigger move could be considered if core inflation runs hot
→ October CPI came in at 0.4% vs 0.3% expected, and core CPI rose 0.3% for the third month in a row
→ Another Fed official said services inflation is rising again
→ PPI rose 0.3%, below the forecast, but the annual rate is 6.5%, the highest since 2022
→ Jobless claims at 200K showed only a small cooling
The market reaction:
→ The 10-year yield climbed above 5%
→ The 30-year auction cleared at 5.441%
→ Stocks still finished the week higher
→ Bitcoin fell below $69K, with ETFs seeing outflows seven days in a row
The question is no longer if the Fed hikes. It is only how much.
$XAU $BTC $ETH
