FedWatch is screaming certainty right now — 88.5% see 25bps, 11.5% see 50bps. That's 100% combined probability of a December hike. No mystery here.
For $BTC and crypto, this is a headwind. Higher rates tighten conditions, pull liquidity, and kill risk appetite. Classic macro pressure.
But here's the real question: how much of this is already baked into price? Markets front-run, especially when the Fed telegraphs this clearly. If everyone sees it coming, the pain may already be in.
Stay disciplined. Watch how $BTC reacts around the announcement. If we hold structure and don't break key support, it's a sign the hike was priced. If we crack, we reassess.
Long-term conviction doesn't change. Short-term, respect the macro headwind and manage risk accordingly.
For $BTC and crypto, this is a headwind. Higher rates tighten conditions, pull liquidity, and kill risk appetite. Classic macro pressure.
But here's the real question: how much of this is already baked into price? Markets front-run, especially when the Fed telegraphs this clearly. If everyone sees it coming, the pain may already be in.
Stay disciplined. Watch how $BTC reacts around the announcement. If we hold structure and don't break key support, it's a sign the hike was priced. If we crack, we reassess.
Long-term conviction doesn't change. Short-term, respect the macro headwind and manage risk accordingly.