$ETH 2021–2026, minute data:
Weekly variance ratio 0.78 → 1.14: the most trending market in six years.
4h autocorrelation turned positive in 2025 (+0.030) and stayed (+0.021).
Sharp 4h rallies while price is below the 20-day average: 64% reversed within 48h in 2026, average −0.6%.
Correlation with Nasdaq: 0.44.
Follow the weekly direction; treat squeezes under the 20-day as noise.
Weekly variance ratio 0.78 → 1.14: the most trending market in six years.
4h autocorrelation turned positive in 2025 (+0.030) and stayed (+0.021).
Sharp 4h rallies while price is below the 20-day average: 64% reversed within 48h in 2026, average −0.6%.
Correlation with Nasdaq: 0.44.
Follow the weekly direction; treat squeezes under the 20-day as noise.
