Bitcoin is falling while US stocks rise - the split explained
Bitcoin $69,000, down 6.0% in 24h (Binance, 14:56 PKT). Range $67,568-$73,632. Volume $2.14B.
The split: Nov 5-12, Bitcoin fell 6.1% (Binance closes $76,088 to $71,460) while the Nasdaq 100 gained about 6% (10x Research: BTC -5.9% vs Nasdaq +6.4%). For years BTC traded like a tech stock. This week it did not.
Why: hot Oct CPI (+0.4% vs +0.3% expected) pushed Dec Fed hike odds near 91%. The dollar index is above 103, its highest in about 19 months. US spot BTC ETFs have lost $2.5B+ since Oct 30, IBIT over $2B in 9 sessions. Thin liquidity did the rest - $1.47B liquidated in 24h, 175,000+ traders.
Technicals: 12 Nov close $71,460 sits below the 200-day average $73,095. RSI 28 - oversold, but oversold alone is not a buy signal. Fear and Greed 20, Extreme Fear.
What the options market prices (Deribit, 20 Nov expiry, index about $68,994): chance BTC is above $70,000 by then about 41%, below $68,000 about 38%, above $73,000 only about 15%. Calls and puts agree. Not a guarantee - a market price, not a prediction.
Plan: stand aside. Long only on a daily close above $70,000, stop below $67,568. Targets $70,000 then $73,095. A close below $68,000 opens $67,292 then $65,000. Tiny size, spot only. Next test: US PPI tonight 18:30 PKT. Confidence: Low.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto
Bitcoin $69,000, down 6.0% in 24h (Binance, 14:56 PKT). Range $67,568-$73,632. Volume $2.14B.
The split: Nov 5-12, Bitcoin fell 6.1% (Binance closes $76,088 to $71,460) while the Nasdaq 100 gained about 6% (10x Research: BTC -5.9% vs Nasdaq +6.4%). For years BTC traded like a tech stock. This week it did not.
Why: hot Oct CPI (+0.4% vs +0.3% expected) pushed Dec Fed hike odds near 91%. The dollar index is above 103, its highest in about 19 months. US spot BTC ETFs have lost $2.5B+ since Oct 30, IBIT over $2B in 9 sessions. Thin liquidity did the rest - $1.47B liquidated in 24h, 175,000+ traders.
Technicals: 12 Nov close $71,460 sits below the 200-day average $73,095. RSI 28 - oversold, but oversold alone is not a buy signal. Fear and Greed 20, Extreme Fear.
What the options market prices (Deribit, 20 Nov expiry, index about $68,994): chance BTC is above $70,000 by then about 41%, below $68,000 about 38%, above $73,000 only about 15%. Calls and puts agree. Not a guarantee - a market price, not a prediction.
Plan: stand aside. Long only on a daily close above $70,000, stop below $67,568. Targets $70,000 then $73,095. A close below $68,000 opens $67,292 then $65,000. Tiny size, spot only. Next test: US PPI tonight 18:30 PKT. Confidence: Low.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto