$ETH is sitting on the line that decides whether this is a dip or a breakdown — $2,000.
It's trading around $2,057 this morning after sliding to $2,001.50 yesterday, its lowest since the August breakout. The trigger wasn't crypto-native: a hotter-than-expected US inflation print pushed it straight through $2,100. That's the third straight daily close below the late-October low near $2,170, which used to be the floor holding the recovery together. Now it's resistance.
Here's the part that makes me pause before calling it a buy: the 14-day RSI is 29.8 — the first reading under 30 since June. Oversold, yes, but oversold is not the same as bottomed. ETH is down 17% in 20 days, and every major average — 20, 50, 100 and 200-day — sits above price now, stacked between roughly $2,266 and $2,357. That's a lot of supply overhead to chew through.
My read: if $2,000 holds on a daily close, a relief move toward $2,130, then $2,170, is the most likely path — that's where the structure starts repairing itself. A close back above $2,170 would change my mind properly. But if $2,000 gives way on a close, the August breakout base is broken and the next stop is the top of the pre-breakout range around $1,950.
I'm watching the $2,000 close, not the intraday wick. That's the line that matters.
Not financial advice.
It's trading around $2,057 this morning after sliding to $2,001.50 yesterday, its lowest since the August breakout. The trigger wasn't crypto-native: a hotter-than-expected US inflation print pushed it straight through $2,100. That's the third straight daily close below the late-October low near $2,170, which used to be the floor holding the recovery together. Now it's resistance.
Here's the part that makes me pause before calling it a buy: the 14-day RSI is 29.8 — the first reading under 30 since June. Oversold, yes, but oversold is not the same as bottomed. ETH is down 17% in 20 days, and every major average — 20, 50, 100 and 200-day — sits above price now, stacked between roughly $2,266 and $2,357. That's a lot of supply overhead to chew through.
My read: if $2,000 holds on a daily close, a relief move toward $2,130, then $2,170, is the most likely path — that's where the structure starts repairing itself. A close back above $2,170 would change my mind properly. But if $2,000 gives way on a close, the August breakout base is broken and the next stop is the top of the pre-breakout range around $1,950.
I'm watching the $2,000 close, not the intraday wick. That's the line that matters.
Not financial advice.
