Hot CPI has locked in a December Fed hike, and the only question left is 25 or 50 basis points. ⚠️
The BLS October release shows headline CPI up 0.4 percent on the month and core up 0.3 percent, both 0.1 point above consensus, and CME FedWatch now puts 85.3 percent odds on a 25 basis point December hike and 14.7 percent on a 50 basis point hike, with zero odds of a hold. 📊 That is a sharp move from before the print, when the market was pricing a near certain 25 basis point move, and it matters because the 10 year yield is sitting near 5.0 percent, which raises the cost of holding Bitcoin with no yield. My reading is that the Fed path is now the ceiling on this bounce, because every green night runs into the same wall, higher rates for longer, and Friday PPI is the next chance for the data to change that story.
Does Friday PPI confirm the hike path, or soften it and give the bounce room? 🤔
Follow for more trades.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #FuturesTrading #TradingSignals #CPI
The BLS October release shows headline CPI up 0.4 percent on the month and core up 0.3 percent, both 0.1 point above consensus, and CME FedWatch now puts 85.3 percent odds on a 25 basis point December hike and 14.7 percent on a 50 basis point hike, with zero odds of a hold. 📊 That is a sharp move from before the print, when the market was pricing a near certain 25 basis point move, and it matters because the 10 year yield is sitting near 5.0 percent, which raises the cost of holding Bitcoin with no yield. My reading is that the Fed path is now the ceiling on this bounce, because every green night runs into the same wall, higher rates for longer, and Friday PPI is the next chance for the data to change that story.
Does Friday PPI confirm the hike path, or soften it and give the bounce room? 🤔
Follow for more trades.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #FuturesTrading #TradingSignals #CPI
