🚨 Well, that inflation report didn't exactly bring the relief some people were waiting for. 😂
October CPI landed at +0.4% MoM against a +0.3% forecast. That's lower than September's +0.6%, but still hotter than expected.
And here's the part I keep coming back to: core CPI stayed at +0.3% for the third consecutive month, above the +0.2% forecast.
So, is inflation cooling? Yes. Is core inflation making things easy for the Fed? Not really.
There's no year-over-year figure this time because the government shutdown prevented the BLS from collecting October 2025 prices.
Now look at rate expectations. CME pricing puts the probability of a December hike above 95%, while the chance of a 50 bps move has climbed from below 5% to above 10%.
That's a lot of rate pressure for risk assets like BTC to deal with.
And $BTC certainly felt the reaction. Remember the September CPI release? BTC closed that day down 1.84%.
Personally, I find the gap between cooling headline inflation and stubborn core inflation more interesting than the headline itself. That's where the real debate starts.
And we're not done yet. 👀
📌 US October PPI arrives Nov 13 at 13:30 UTC. Another hot producer reading could add further pressure.
📌 FOMC rate decision follows on Dec 9 at 19:00 UTC.
So, what do you think? Is inflation finally moving in the right direction, or are we celebrating too early?
Markets carry risk. For information only, not investment advice.
October CPI landed at +0.4% MoM against a +0.3% forecast. That's lower than September's +0.6%, but still hotter than expected.
And here's the part I keep coming back to: core CPI stayed at +0.3% for the third consecutive month, above the +0.2% forecast.
So, is inflation cooling? Yes. Is core inflation making things easy for the Fed? Not really.
There's no year-over-year figure this time because the government shutdown prevented the BLS from collecting October 2025 prices.
Now look at rate expectations. CME pricing puts the probability of a December hike above 95%, while the chance of a 50 bps move has climbed from below 5% to above 10%.
That's a lot of rate pressure for risk assets like BTC to deal with.
And $BTC certainly felt the reaction. Remember the September CPI release? BTC closed that day down 1.84%.
Personally, I find the gap between cooling headline inflation and stubborn core inflation more interesting than the headline itself. That's where the real debate starts.
And we're not done yet. 👀
📌 US October PPI arrives Nov 13 at 13:30 UTC. Another hot producer reading could add further pressure.
📌 FOMC rate decision follows on Dec 9 at 19:00 UTC.
So, what do you think? Is inflation finally moving in the right direction, or are we celebrating too early?
Markets carry risk. For information only, not investment advice.