#HotCPIDecemberHikePriced Inflation just reminded everyone it isn't done yet. The October CPI came in hot, and the odds of a half-point December hike jumped. The surprise stacks on top of a strong labor market: a blowout jobs report had already pushed CME FedWatch's December hike probability to about 77% on November 6, up from roughly 67% a week earlier. Even forecasters who expected softer inflation had said a December hike still looked likely. The debate now is no longer whether the Fed hikes, but how hard. Is a 25bp move enough to cool prices, or does a hotter print push policymakers toward 50? And what does that mean for stocks, bonds, mortgages and the dollar into year-end? 💬 (CPI comes in hot, raising odds of a bigger-than-expected December rate hike .