Today Is The Test. December Will Be Decided By CPI.
US October CPI is out today, Nov 10, at 8:30 AM ET. This is the last major inflation print before the Fed's December 8-9 FOMC meeting.
What Market Expects:
Headline CPI: +0.3% MoM, down from +0.6% in September
Core CPI: +0.2% MoM
Annual CPI: ∼3.7% YoY
September was hot. CPI jumped to 3.7% YoY from 3.4%. Core rose to 2.6%. That changed everything.
Current Fed Rate: 3.75% - 4.00%
After a hike in September and a pause in October.
December Odds Right Now:
∼75-80% chance of a 25bps HIKE to 4.00% - 4.25%
∼20% chance of a HOLD
∼2% chance of a CUT
Yes, you read that right. Market is NOT pricing a cut. It is pricing another hike.
Why? October Jobs Report was blowout - 165,000 new jobs vs expectation of much lower. 2 Fed officials already dissented in October in favor of an immediate hike.
3 Scenarios:
🟢 Cool CPI - Headline 0.2% / Core 0.2%
Hike odds drop. $BTC, $ETH, Nasdaq rally. Dollar falls. This is what bulls need.
🟡 In Line - Headline 0.3% / Core 0.2-0.3%
Hike stays base case. Market choppy. $BTC stays range-bound $98k - $105k.
🔴 Hot CPI - Headline 0.4%+ / Core 0.3%+
Hike becomes almost certain. Dollar and yields spike. $BTC, alts, Nasdaq sell off. Risk-off mode.
My View:
One cool CPI will NOT guarantee a pause. Fed will also watch jobs, wages, and November CPI. But a hot CPI today will kill any hope of easing in 2026.
This CPI decides if December is a hike or a hold. There is no cut on the table.
What is your bet? Hot or Cool CPI?
Comment below
#cpi #fomc #BinanceSquareFamily
#EarningsSeason
#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook
US October CPI is out today, Nov 10, at 8:30 AM ET. This is the last major inflation print before the Fed's December 8-9 FOMC meeting.
What Market Expects:
Headline CPI: +0.3% MoM, down from +0.6% in September
Core CPI: +0.2% MoM
Annual CPI: ∼3.7% YoY
September was hot. CPI jumped to 3.7% YoY from 3.4%. Core rose to 2.6%. That changed everything.
Current Fed Rate: 3.75% - 4.00%
After a hike in September and a pause in October.
December Odds Right Now:
∼75-80% chance of a 25bps HIKE to 4.00% - 4.25%
∼20% chance of a HOLD
∼2% chance of a CUT
Yes, you read that right. Market is NOT pricing a cut. It is pricing another hike.
Why? October Jobs Report was blowout - 165,000 new jobs vs expectation of much lower. 2 Fed officials already dissented in October in favor of an immediate hike.
3 Scenarios:
🟢 Cool CPI - Headline 0.2% / Core 0.2%
Hike odds drop. $BTC, $ETH, Nasdaq rally. Dollar falls. This is what bulls need.
🟡 In Line - Headline 0.3% / Core 0.2-0.3%
Hike stays base case. Market choppy. $BTC stays range-bound $98k - $105k.
🔴 Hot CPI - Headline 0.4%+ / Core 0.3%+
Hike becomes almost certain. Dollar and yields spike. $BTC, alts, Nasdaq sell off. Risk-off mode.
My View:
One cool CPI will NOT guarantee a pause. Fed will also watch jobs, wages, and November CPI. But a hot CPI today will kill any hope of easing in 2026.
This CPI decides if December is a hike or a hold. There is no cut on the table.
What is your bet? Hot or Cool CPI?
Comment below
#cpi #fomc #BinanceSquareFamily
#EarningsSeason
#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook