Four hours. That is all that stands between us and the one number that decides December.
October CPI drops tonight at 20:30 WIB, and the setup is brutal. Markets are already pricing in roughly an 80% chance the Fed hikes again in December, and this is the last inflation reading before that meeting on December 8-9. Consensus is +0.3% headline, +0.2% core. There will not even be a year-over-year number this time, the shutdown last year left a hole in the data, so the monthly print is all we get.
Here is the thing. A hot print above 0.3% basically locks the hike in and risk assets get punished. A soft 0.1% and suddenly the hike is back in doubt. There is not much middle ground left.
$BTC is sitting around $74,400 right now, just above the 200-day line near $73,170, and the Fear and Greed index is at 27. Nobody wants to make a big move before the number lands. That is usually when the number lands hardest.
Are you sitting this one out until after 20:30, or already positioned for the print? #CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook
October CPI drops tonight at 20:30 WIB, and the setup is brutal. Markets are already pricing in roughly an 80% chance the Fed hikes again in December, and this is the last inflation reading before that meeting on December 8-9. Consensus is +0.3% headline, +0.2% core. There will not even be a year-over-year number this time, the shutdown last year left a hole in the data, so the monthly print is all we get.
Here is the thing. A hot print above 0.3% basically locks the hike in and risk assets get punished. A soft 0.1% and suddenly the hike is back in doubt. There is not much middle ground left.
$BTC is sitting around $74,400 right now, just above the 200-day line near $73,170, and the Fear and Greed index is at 27. Nobody wants to make a big move before the number lands. That is usually when the number lands hardest.
Are you sitting this one out until after 20:30, or already positioned for the print? #CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook
