A week ago $XRP was trading around $1.16. On Monday it touched $1.07, the lowest since August, and led the top 10 lower with a drop of about 5–6%. Three numbers explain where it stands.
Number one:
$1.0959. That's roughly where XRP sat late Monday (quotes ranged $1.09–1.11), after a day spent between $1.0785 and $1.1257.
The weekly loss is close to 12%, and the coin is about 70% below its $3.65 high.
Market cap is near $69.5B (rank #6), and volume spiked to $2.2–3.4B as sellers hit the bid.
Liquidations helped: about $30.8M of XRP positions were closed on Sunday, almost all longs.
Number two:
27. Daily RSI sits at 26–27.5, firmly oversold. That's the case for a bounce.
The case against: the daily MACD histogram is still widening to the downside, and price is under the EMA20 ($1.26), EMA50 ($1.31) and EMA200 ($1.35).
Resistance: $1.13 (pivot), $1.15–1.16, $1.18–1.21, then $1.26–1.27.
Support: $1.07–1.08, $1.04–1.05, $1.00, then $0.95–0.99, the August low zone.
Number three:
$0. That's how much new money US spot $XRP ETFs took in from Nov 3 to Nov 6 (SoSoValue). Nov 2 even saw a small $0.53M outflow. Cumulative inflows are $1.81B, but October brought only $18.8M against $121.4M in September. Institutional demand has gone quiet.
What cuts the other way ✅
Whales added more than 16.46M XRP in five days (Santiment), and another tracker counts about 60M in seven days.
CryptoQuant data shows 418.5M XRP leaving Binance.
RLUSD reached about $2.6B in market cap by late October.
The XRPL closed a token-minting loophole on Nov 4 with no known exploits.
What still weighs ⚠️
300M XRP stayed outside escrow after the Nov 1 release.
The CLARITY Act stalled in a 49–50 Senate vote and could lapse on Jan 3, 2027.
Macro: CPI on Tuesday and roughly 80–85% odds of a December hike.
Scenarios
🟢 A soft CPI and a daily close above $1.18 open $1.21.
⚪ An oversold bounce that fades around $1.13–1.16.
🔴 A daily close under $1.04 exposes $1.00, then $0.95–0.99
What analysts say.
Bitrue Research found that in 12 of 17 past cases with daily RSI below 35, XRP was higher three months later, with a median gain of 9.1%; its recovery trigger is daily closes above $1.18.
CoinGape calls $1.04 the line that matters, with $0.95 below it and $1.21 possible on a dovish CPI.
Ali Martinez points to steady whale buying.
My read: last Monday's brief had XRP breaking under $1.10. A week later it's still there, and ETF demand hasn't come back. Whale wallets are the only buyers showing up in the data.
Dates to watch
Tue Nov 10 - US October CPI
Fri Nov 13 - US October PPI
Tue Dec 1: next monthly escrow release (regular schedule)
Dec 8–9: FOMC
$1.04 or $1.18: which level does $XRP hit first? 👇
Educational content, not financial advice. DYOR.