$BTC Daily Forecast | Tue 10 Nov 2026
$BTC $74,514 (+0.42% 24h). The last window bounced from a $73,738 low to $75,581 on 1,404 $BTC of volume, but price is still just under the 200-day EMA ($75,710). Fear & Greed 29 (Fear).
09:00 London forecast
Wed 11 Nov: $74,385 (68%: $73,055-75,710 | 90%: $72,195-76,570)
Thu 12 Nov: $74,010 (68%: $72,140-75,880 | 90%: $70,930-77,085)
Scenarios (Wed): bull 14% / base 48% / bear 38%
Why the model leans slightly lower
1. Trend (-0.55): spot is under the EMA10 ($76,544), EMA20 ($78,046), EMA50 ($79,222) and EMA200 ($75,710). The 5-Nov window high was $80.7k.
2. ETF flows (-0.46): last session (6-Nov) -$412m; 3-session -$768m, 7-session -$1.91bn. Monday's print is not out yet.
3. Funding (+0.05): +0.4% annualised now (24h mean +5.2% vs +18.2%), OI ~6,140 $BTC . Leverage is washed out with no crowded side.
4. Sentiment (+0.10): Fear & Greed 29 is contrarian-positive and limits the downside skew.
5. Liquidity: 1,404 $BTC traded in the last window vs 1,320 the window before, so the rebound had real volume. Vol multiplier x1.0 (weekdays).
6. Macro (-0.05): no confirmed catalyst for either move; small negative.
Net weighted bias: -0.07 (mild bearish).
Key levels
Support: $73.7k (last window low), then $73.1k (bottom of the 68% band). A break opens $73.4k / $72.7k.
Resistance: $75.7k (EMA200 and top of the 68% band). Reclaiming it targets $76.4k.
Scenario detail
Bull: EMA200 retest as shorts cover.
Base: chop near $74.6k under the EMA200.
Bear: outflows persist, $73.7k fails.
Scorecard: our 10-Nov call was $74,020 vs $74,837 actual (1.09% miss, low). Volatility recalibrated 1.99% -> 1.79%/day; bias to -0.10%.
Full report + dashboard: metaitraders.com
(c) Alpha DeepFi (approved Square creator) / MetaiTraders. No reposting. Not financial advice, DYOR.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoForecast #BTCPrediction #CryptoMarket
$BTC $74,514 (+0.42% 24h). The last window bounced from a $73,738 low to $75,581 on 1,404 $BTC of volume, but price is still just under the 200-day EMA ($75,710). Fear & Greed 29 (Fear).
09:00 London forecast
Wed 11 Nov: $74,385 (68%: $73,055-75,710 | 90%: $72,195-76,570)
Thu 12 Nov: $74,010 (68%: $72,140-75,880 | 90%: $70,930-77,085)
Scenarios (Wed): bull 14% / base 48% / bear 38%
Why the model leans slightly lower
1. Trend (-0.55): spot is under the EMA10 ($76,544), EMA20 ($78,046), EMA50 ($79,222) and EMA200 ($75,710). The 5-Nov window high was $80.7k.
2. ETF flows (-0.46): last session (6-Nov) -$412m; 3-session -$768m, 7-session -$1.91bn. Monday's print is not out yet.
3. Funding (+0.05): +0.4% annualised now (24h mean +5.2% vs +18.2%), OI ~6,140 $BTC . Leverage is washed out with no crowded side.
4. Sentiment (+0.10): Fear & Greed 29 is contrarian-positive and limits the downside skew.
5. Liquidity: 1,404 $BTC traded in the last window vs 1,320 the window before, so the rebound had real volume. Vol multiplier x1.0 (weekdays).
6. Macro (-0.05): no confirmed catalyst for either move; small negative.
Net weighted bias: -0.07 (mild bearish).
Key levels
Support: $73.7k (last window low), then $73.1k (bottom of the 68% band). A break opens $73.4k / $72.7k.
Resistance: $75.7k (EMA200 and top of the 68% band). Reclaiming it targets $76.4k.
Scenario detail
Bull: EMA200 retest as shorts cover.
Base: chop near $74.6k under the EMA200.
Bear: outflows persist, $73.7k fails.
Scorecard: our 10-Nov call was $74,020 vs $74,837 actual (1.09% miss, low). Volatility recalibrated 1.99% -> 1.79%/day; bias to -0.10%.
Full report + dashboard: metaitraders.com
(c) Alpha DeepFi (approved Square creator) / MetaiTraders. No reposting. Not financial advice, DYOR.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoForecast #BTCPrediction #CryptoMarket
