December hike odds are climbing. Inflation's still running hot — September PCE at 3.6% headline, 3.1% core — and the economy isn't giving the Fed an excuse to back off. October payrolls up 165k, unemployment pinned near 4.1%, Q3 GDP clocking 3.4% annualized. That's not a recession backdrop.
Two voters already wanted a hike in October — Cook and Hammack dissented at the last meeting when the Fed held at 3.75–4.00%. They saw the data and said "not enough." Now the same macro setup is still in play: inflation above target, labor market solid, growth intact.
The Fed's got room to tighten if they want to. December's live. Watch the November inflation prints and any shift in tone from Powell. If data stays firm, they'll hike. If something cracks, they'll pause. Right now, the path of least resistance is another 25bp.
Two voters already wanted a hike in October — Cook and Hammack dissented at the last meeting when the Fed held at 3.75–4.00%. They saw the data and said "not enough." Now the same macro setup is still in play: inflation above target, labor market solid, growth intact.
The Fed's got room to tighten if they want to. December's live. Watch the November inflation prints and any shift in tone from Powell. If data stays firm, they'll hike. If something cracks, they'll pause. Right now, the path of least resistance is another 25bp.