Can a token that buys back about 35,000 of its own coins every day still have the worst week in the top 15? $HYPE just did, falling 12.2%.
📍 Snapshot
HYPE trades at about $73.60. Quotes range from $72.91 on Binance to $75.09 on CoinGecko, and it’s down 1.1% to 3.5% in 24h, with CoinGecko at −3.0%. The 24h range was $73.13–$78.04, and market cap is about $18B. Today’s question: does the $73 neckline hold, or does the head-and-shoulders pattern play out?
📐 On the chart
RSI: daily RSI is 36–42 depending on the source. Momentum is weak but not oversold.
Averages: price is below the 20-day EMA ($81.44) and the 50-day SMA (~$85.5), and still above the 200-day SMA (~$68). I found no 100-day figure.
Pattern: CoinCentral sees a head-and-shoulders breaking down. A daily close below $73 would target $68–70.
Resistance: $77.0–77.2, $79–79.5, $81–81.4, $85.
Support: $72.8–72.9, $70–71.4, $68–69 (200-day), $59–60.
💰 Business side
Revenue: $68.9M over 30 days, about 5% below the prior 30 days (DefiLlama via BigGo).
Buybacks: the Assistance Fund holds 48.7M HYPE and buys roughly 35,300 HYPE a day at about $77.
Platform: open interest is $7.31B and TVL about $7.94B.
Unlock: about 9.92M $HYPE unlocked for core contributors on Nov 6.
ETFs: spot HYPE ETFs lost $13.4M net over Nov 4–6.
Treasury company: Hyperliquid Strategies holds 38.9M HYPE at an average cost of $56.35.
⚙️ Leverage check
Open interest: HYPE OI is $3.52–3.54B, down from $3.95B on Oct 31.
Funding: positive in every hour of the past week, averaging 0.0023% per hour. That’s a crowded long base.
Liquidations: longs lost $21.75M on Nov 5, the most since August. CoinGlass shows only about $0.8M in the last 24h.
📰 Headlines
Binance reopened HYPE withdrawals on Nov 8, after its Oct 29 hack.
Hyperliquid Strategies applied to register as a futures broker (FCM) to offer regulated perpetuals to US customers.
Spot HYPE ETFs saw net outflows.
Competitor Lighter: listed 30 Turkish stocks and plans CFTC filings in November.
🎯 Scenarios
🟢 Bullish: reclaim $77.2 and hold it while buybacks absorb supply. That opens $79.5–81.4.
⚪ Base: sideways between $70 and $77 as funding cools.
🔴 Bearish: a daily close under $73 confirms the pattern, with $68 and then $60 next.
What analysts say:
CoinCodex: model target of $60.06 by Nov 14.
Nebraskangooner (trader): flags the head-and-shoulders breakdown.
I found no forecasts from named research firms.
My read: buybacks put a steady bid under $HYPE , but a week of always-positive funding means a lot of longs still have to get out.
🗓 Upcoming events
Tue Nov 10, 15:30: US CPI
Wed Nov 18, 21:00: FOMC minutes
More phases of Binance’s asset restoration and the next monthly unlock: no dates confirmed
Does the $73 neckline hold, or does the head-and-shoulders pattern play out?
Market overview, not investment advice. Prices at time of writing.