Everyone watches the price. These are the three ways a position usually goes wrong that have nothing to do with it.

One, the carry. $BTC funding is +0.0001 per 8 hours right now. That is roughly 0.03% a day, about 10.9% annualised, paid by longs every interval. A position that is directionally correct but held for months can lose to funding alone. This is not a market view, it is an invoice. Check the funding rate before you decide how long to hold, not after.

Two, the crowding. 74.36% of $BTC accounts and 79.66% of $ETH accounts are long right now. A correct thesis expressed through a crowded position still fails, because the exit is the problem. When everyone leans the same way, the marginal participant is a fuel source regardless of their view. That argues for smaller size, not a different direction.

Three, the time frame mismatch. $BTC is down 2.19% on the day and 7.44% over 15 days, while $SOL is down 2.87% today and 14.36% over 15 days. If your thesis was about a daily bounce and you are measuring it against the 15-day drawdown, you will conclude you were wrong when you were not, or worse, that you were right when you were not. Write the timeframe into the thesis before you enter, because the exit will be judged on one and it will not be the one you remember.

All three of these are known before the trade. None of them require a prediction. They only require that you look at the position you are opening rather than the one you are hoping to open. #RiskManagement #Trading #Crypto

Process notes from my own research. Not financial advice.