$BTC | Square is trending a jobs report that lifted rate hike odds. On the desk, a strong labour print never moves Bitcoin on its own, it moves the dollar and the curve first. The SatoshiMacro Model's Macro tier is only 5 percent of its 48-signal composite, built from the USD Index inverse, M2 growth, the 2s10s curve, VIX inverse, equities and gold, the same channel a hike repricing runs through. SMM reads 33.4 today, Neutral. My read: that small weight is deliberate. The curve that puts all four BTC cycle tops in the Top zone was fitted to those same dates, so 7-of-7 is in-sample, a limit worth knowing. On a 2:1 ASIC-capped crypto CFD, a dollar squeeze still moves margin fast.
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