Scenario A - Bullish Recovery: BTC ,000-,000
If BTC holds ,500 and breaks ,100 with volume, the path opens to ,000-,000.
Drivers:
1. Oversold bounce off liquidity sweep below .5k.
2. Short covering from cluster.
3. Renewed ETF inflows resuming.
4. Softer DXY on easing Fed expectations.
Under this scenario: volatility expands upside; RSI recovers above 50; MACD bullish crossover; funding turns positive. Invalidation: failure to hold ,500. False-bottom risk high - demand volume confirmation before adding exposure. Risk management: scale in on confirmed breaks.
Assigned probability: ~40%. Position sizing should reflect this path as plausible but not certain.
#BTCAnalysis
If BTC holds ,500 and breaks ,100 with volume, the path opens to ,000-,000.
Drivers:
1. Oversold bounce off liquidity sweep below .5k.
2. Short covering from cluster.
3. Renewed ETF inflows resuming.
4. Softer DXY on easing Fed expectations.
Under this scenario: volatility expands upside; RSI recovers above 50; MACD bullish crossover; funding turns positive. Invalidation: failure to hold ,500. False-bottom risk high - demand volume confirmation before adding exposure. Risk management: scale in on confirmed breaks.
Assigned probability: ~40%. Position sizing should reflect this path as plausible but not certain.
#BTCAnalysis
