Retail is piled long on BNB while smart money won't follow — that gap usually bites.
BTC is sitting at 76,007 and a lot of people are calling this the bottom. I'm not convinced. Price is under every EMA, RSI near 40, and volume is a fraction of normal. A bounce on dead volume is not a bounce, it's just a vacuum.
The part that bothers me more is positioning. Retail long/short is around 3.0 on BTC, ETH and SOL, and BNB is the same story with smart money at just 1.06. Funding cooling sounds nice, but that only means longs are paying less to hold. They're still there. Fuel is stacked below, not above.
Macro isn't doing us any favours either. Strong jobs print has the December hike talk back on the table, CPI drops next week, and gold near 4,066 is where money is hiding. Toss in $411M of BTC ETF outflows and a couple billion in realized losses and this reads like distribution.
S&P is holding, dollar is firm, crypto beta isn't catching a bid. That combo rarely ends well for coins.
My line in the sand is 74,888. Lose it and 70K comes into play. Hold it and we chop around until CPI decides. I'm mostly in cash right now.
Not financial advice, just how I'm reading it. What's your plan if we break 74,888 this week?
#Trading #Binance #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto
BTC is sitting at 76,007 and a lot of people are calling this the bottom. I'm not convinced. Price is under every EMA, RSI near 40, and volume is a fraction of normal. A bounce on dead volume is not a bounce, it's just a vacuum.
The part that bothers me more is positioning. Retail long/short is around 3.0 on BTC, ETH and SOL, and BNB is the same story with smart money at just 1.06. Funding cooling sounds nice, but that only means longs are paying less to hold. They're still there. Fuel is stacked below, not above.
Macro isn't doing us any favours either. Strong jobs print has the December hike talk back on the table, CPI drops next week, and gold near 4,066 is where money is hiding. Toss in $411M of BTC ETF outflows and a couple billion in realized losses and this reads like distribution.
S&P is holding, dollar is firm, crypto beta isn't catching a bid. That combo rarely ends well for coins.
My line in the sand is 74,888. Lose it and 70K comes into play. Hold it and we chop around until CPI decides. I'm mostly in cash right now.
Not financial advice, just how I'm reading it. What's your plan if we break 74,888 this week?
#Trading #Binance #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto