$BTC MAIN PLAN
We could see a relief bounce as the NFP news appears priced in after the sweep. However, I still view any Scalping Long setup as a temporary bounce before another leg down.
Reason:
-75,7 (STH cost basis) is being tested. Yesterday's sweep to $74,888 already broke below it intraday, with no meaningful spot ETF support.
-Below 75.7K: The 73–75K zone has thin cost-basis support. Only ~353K BTC were accumulated between 75–77K. A breakdown could quickly send BTC toward 73,200 (Daily MA200) and $72K, a key psychological level and September's correction low.
-Below 72K: A major liquidity gap extends toward 64–68K. Either BTC bottoms around 72–73K, or this correction develops into a new bear-market leg.
-ETF flows remain deeply negative, while Coinbase Premium has stayed negative for 62 consecutive days.
Macro:
NFP +165K, Core PCE 3.1%, GDP 3.4%. The Fed has little reason to turn dovish. Markets are pricing in roughly a 78% chance of a December hike.
My Plan:
Still expect the real bottom around 74K, with a possible sweep into 72–73K.
I'm NOT shorting BTC at $76K. It's the middle of the range, with no clear edge, right above the reclaimed STH cost basis after a liquidity sweep. My preferred short zone remains 79.5–80K.
$BTC
$ETH
We could see a relief bounce as the NFP news appears priced in after the sweep. However, I still view any Scalping Long setup as a temporary bounce before another leg down.
Reason:
-75,7 (STH cost basis) is being tested. Yesterday's sweep to $74,888 already broke below it intraday, with no meaningful spot ETF support.
-Below 75.7K: The 73–75K zone has thin cost-basis support. Only ~353K BTC were accumulated between 75–77K. A breakdown could quickly send BTC toward 73,200 (Daily MA200) and $72K, a key psychological level and September's correction low.
-Below 72K: A major liquidity gap extends toward 64–68K. Either BTC bottoms around 72–73K, or this correction develops into a new bear-market leg.
-ETF flows remain deeply negative, while Coinbase Premium has stayed negative for 62 consecutive days.
Macro:
NFP +165K, Core PCE 3.1%, GDP 3.4%. The Fed has little reason to turn dovish. Markets are pricing in roughly a 78% chance of a December hike.
My Plan:
Still expect the real bottom around 74K, with a possible sweep into 72–73K.
I'm NOT shorting BTC at $76K. It's the middle of the range, with no clear edge, right above the reclaimed STH cost basis after a liquidity sweep. My preferred short zone remains 79.5–80K.
$BTC
$ETH
