#BTC #ETH #solana #xrp #Hyperliquid

1. Top news

  • The rebound is losing steam. BTC slipped from ≈$80,400 to ≈$79,500.

    • 24h liquidations were $715M, ≈65% shorts. BTC liquidations were $267M, ≈93% shorts.

    • BTC open interest rose only 0.3% while the price rose 2.6%.

    • One-week options skew fell from ≈11% to ≈2%.

    • The rally is short-covering, not new longs. (≈3h)

  • The US labor market is stronger than expected. Initial jobless claims came in at 189K, vs 196K expected and 194K before. Q3 productivity rose 3.6% (2.9% expected), and unit labor costs fell 0.7%. (≈1.5h)

  • Fed. Hammack (Cleveland Fed) said policy should move into “restrictive territory” through small, frequent steps. Markets see Dec 9 as “live” for a 25 bp hike (≈78% as of Nov 4). Logan speaks tonight. (≈2h)

  • ETFs. The latest known spot BTC ETF flow is +$74.6M on Nov 4. That was the first inflow after three outflow days of ≈$1.16B (FBTC +$236.7M, IBIT −$201.2M). ETH ETFs had seven straight outflow sessions through Nov 3, totaling −$656M. Nov 5 data comes out on Nov 6. (≈4.5h)

  • The Bank of England raised its rate to 4%, its first hike in more than three years. The vote was 8–1; Mann wanted +0.5 pt. (≈3h)

  • Markets.

    • Nasdaq futures are −0.8%, and a chip ETF was ≈−4% pre-market. Dow futures are +0.6%.

    • The US 10-year yield is ≈4.90%; the 30-year is ≈5.28%.

    • Oil is rebounding after yesterday’s 8% drop: WTI is near ≈$90 and Brent ≈$97–98.

    • Gold is above $4,100. (≈1–2h)

  • Hacks. Mercado Bitcoin: $48.6M traced, more than $15M frozen. Binance has replaced ≈98% of funds, and ≈$2.8B is frozen. (4–6h) No new hacks found in the last 4 hours.

  • Regulation. Democrats control both chambers of Congress. The CLARITY Act expires on Jan 3, 2027. (≈1 day)

  • ZEC ≈$1,312 (+10.8%, morning data): the NU7 upgrade and rising shielded transactions. Resistance is $1,350.

  • INJ ≈$7.6–8 (≈+9%): Nasdaq approved the listing of Canary’s staked INJ ETF (INJC). Trading has not started yet: the S-1 registration with the SEC must take effect first. Open interest rose from 17.3M to 18.4M INJ. Resistance is $8.40; support is $7.30.

  • NEAR ≈$4.04 (+7.9%): rose on $742M volume. Resistance is $4.27.

  • VVV ≈$24.2 (+16%, Nov 4 data): token burns and buybacks.

  • ENA ≈$0.181 (+7.4%): a rebound, but 93.8M ENA unlock today.

  • CARDS ≈$0.30 (+18–25%): Upbit listing; liquidity is thin.

3. BTC and ETH

  • BTC ≈$79,500 (+1.5%). It dropped below the $79,800–80,100 zone, where the 20- and 50-day EMAs sit.

    • Support: $77,970, then $75,625.

    • Resistance: $80,000–80,100, $81,180, $82,000.

    • Signal: a daily close below the EMAs would make this morning’s breakout a fakeout.

    • Scenarios: back above $80,100 means a test of $81,180–82,000. Losing $77,970 opens $75,600.

    • Tomorrow’s expiry has max pain at $79,000, and the price may drift toward it.

  • ETH ≈$2,385 (+2.9%). It is testing support at $2,390.

    • Further support: $2,314, then $2,223; below $2,223, the reversal fails.

    • Resistance: $2,447, then $2,497–2,525.

    • The bullish daily MACD crossover still holds.

4. Token unlocks

  • Today, Nov 5: ENA, 93.8M (0.70%), ≈$17M.

  • Nov 6, HYPE: up to ≈9.92M scheduled (≈$820M at the current price). Tokenomist says $923M, but only 3.75M actually moved in October.

  • Nov 7: STABLE ≈$23.8M; JTO, KGEN and ZTC ≈$65.9M combined.

  • Nov 8: AVAX, 1.67M (0.38%), ≈$14.5M.

  • Nov 11: SOL, 204K (0.035%), ≈$19M; ALLO ≈$28M.

  • Nov 12: APT, 4.54M (0.51%), ≈$2.9M; PUMP, 625M (0.14%), ≈$2.8M.

  • Later in November:

    • Nov 15: STRK 1.67% (≈$5.6M), SEI 1.45% (≈$4.8M).

    • Nov 16: CRO 2.31% (≈$60M), ARB 1.34% (≈$15M).

    • Nov 20: ZRO 5.83% (≈$39–44M).

    • Nov 24: MON ≈15.6B (≈132% of circulating supply), $132–289M.

    • Nov 25: XPL 4.78% (≈$15–18M).

5. Upcoming events

  • Tonight: the Dallas Fed’s Logan speaks.

  • Fri, Nov 6, 10:00: Deribit BTC options expiry: 33,135 BTC (≈$2.65B), max pain $79,000, put/call ratio 0.33.

  • Fri, Nov 6:

    • 15:30 — October NFP (forecast +55–65K; unemployment 4.2%).

    • 17:00 — University of Michigan consumer sentiment.

    • 19:15 — Bowman speaks. Williams and Musalem also speak.

  • Tue, Nov 10, 15:30: CPI.

  • Wed, Nov 18, 21:00: FOMC minutes.

  • Wed, Dec 9, 21:00: Fed decision (rate now 3.75–4.00%).

6. In accumulation

  • XRP ≈$1.32 (+2.8%), range $1.20–1.34.

    • Large holders have added 770M XRP since Oct 29.

    • Whales account for 98.4% of outflows from Binance, the highest since Oct 2024 (TradingNews).

    • There are 2,147 wallets holding ≥1M XRP, the most in 2026 (Santiment).

    • Trigger: a break above $1.34–1.35. Confirmation: a close above $1.50.

    • Risks: Binance XRP reserves rose by 280M, and 1B XRP was released from escrow on Nov 1.

  • ETH ≈$2,385, consolidating in $2,180–2,450.

    • Exchange supply is at a decade low (CoinAlertNews, headline only).

    • Funding on Hyperliquid was negative (data as of Oct 30).

    • Trigger: a close above $2,510. Risk: ETH ETF outflows.

  • ADA ≈$0.199 (+3.8%), new.

    • The range is narrowing into an ascending triangle with a ceiling at $0.1999.

    • Volume rose 34% to $326M.

    • 57.2% of the supply is staked (CoinGabbar).

    • Confirmation: a close above $0.1999, then a move to $0.2087.

    • Risks: longs are crowded (long/short ratio 2.06 on Binance). The daily trend is weak, with the 200-day EMA at $0.234.

7. Bullish and bearish signals

Bullish signals

  • ZEC ≈$1,312 (+10.8%), new signal: closed on 2.14× average volume. Confirmed above $1,350; cancelled below $1,243.

  • INJ ≈$7.6–8 (≈+9%), new signal: open interest is rising with the price (18.4M INJ), and funding is moderate (0.0102%). Confirmed above $8.40; cancelled below $7.05.

  • NEAR ≈$4.04 (+7.9%), new signal: rose on $742M volume. Confirmed above $4.27; cancelled below $3.68.

Bearish signals

  • TRUMP ≈$1.26 (−16.6%): political tokens are being sold after the election. WLFI and MELANIA are also under pressure.

  • HYPE ≈$82.4 (−4.5%): unlock on Nov 6, after earlier crowded longs. Cancelled by holding above $90.

  • WLD (≈$0.46 by the Nov 3 valuation): a whale sent 56.15M WLD (≈$25.9M) to exchanges.

  • AAVE (≈$138 by the Nov 3 valuation): the same whale sent 184K AAVE (≈$25.5M) to exchanges.

8. On watch

a) Significant news in the last ~4 hours

  • INJ, correction: the INJC listing is approved, but trading has not started; the S-1 registration still has to take effect. (≈5h) Source: Cryptonomist.

  • POL, clarification: the hard fork would recover 70.49M POL, worth only ≈$6.8M. Of that, 46.6M POL came from the Binance hack and 23.9M from the Polymarket hack. Total supply would not change. The discussion was scheduled for Nov 5, with no mainnet date yet. It would set a precedent for forced balance changes. (≈9h) Source: Cointelegraph.

  • ADA: an ascending triangle near $0.1999; see section 6. (≈5h)

b) Strong 24h moves

  • ZEC +10.8%, INJ ≈+9%, NEAR +7.9%, ENA +7.4%: see sections 2 and 7.

  • From Nov 4 VVV +16%, PUMP +9.4%, LIT +9.3%, POL +8.8%, ZRO +8.3%, NIGHT +7.8%.