Tomorrow's jobs report is the one number that decides whether this $80K reclaim survives the weekend — and I'm more nervous than the market looks.
Here's my read: consensus is roughly +65K jobs for October, unemployment steady at 4.2%, coming off a weak +29K in September. But ADP already printed +86K this week, beating expectations, and some desks are floating 120K. If the official number comes in hot, the December rate-hike odds — already around 75–82% per CME FedWatch — spike higher, and a market that just rallied on midterm relief gets a reason to give it back. Bitcoin is sitting right at $80,250; it doesn't take much to push it back under $80K.
My stance: I'm positioned for a hot print to hurt. A soft number under ~50K is the only outcome that keeps the rally going — it puts rate cuts back on the table. Anything near or above consensus and I expect chop at best, a flush at worst. Jim Cramer even warned this report could unwind the whole post-midterm rally, and for once I think the warning is fair.
So what's your call for Friday, 8:30 AM ET (6:30 PM PKT)?
A) Soft (<50K) — cuts back on the table, BTC pushes toward $82K
B) In line (~65K) — chop, BTC holds $80K
C) Hot (>100K) — hike odds spike, BTC retests $78K
Which camp are you in — and are you hedged, or just holding through it? $BTC
Here's my read: consensus is roughly +65K jobs for October, unemployment steady at 4.2%, coming off a weak +29K in September. But ADP already printed +86K this week, beating expectations, and some desks are floating 120K. If the official number comes in hot, the December rate-hike odds — already around 75–82% per CME FedWatch — spike higher, and a market that just rallied on midterm relief gets a reason to give it back. Bitcoin is sitting right at $80,250; it doesn't take much to push it back under $80K.
My stance: I'm positioned for a hot print to hurt. A soft number under ~50K is the only outcome that keeps the rally going — it puts rate cuts back on the table. Anything near or above consensus and I expect chop at best, a flush at worst. Jim Cramer even warned this report could unwind the whole post-midterm rally, and for once I think the warning is fair.
So what's your call for Friday, 8:30 AM ET (6:30 PM PKT)?
A) Soft (<50K) — cuts back on the table, BTC pushes toward $82K
B) In line (~65K) — chop, BTC holds $80K
C) Hot (>100K) — hike odds spike, BTC retests $78K
Which camp are you in — and are you hedged, or just holding through it? $BTC
