$BTC closed October near $77.5K, down about 7.3% on the month, and the Binance breach headlines are only part of the story. The bigger question for November: who is actually buying?
Where things stand (Kraken, Nov 1): BTC ~$77.8K. Over the last 7 days it traded between ~$76.2K and ~$81.9K, and it is roughly 3.4% below where the week started (~$80.6K).
Demand check:
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $643M of net outflows on Oct 30 (Farside), the largest daily withdrawal of the month and enough to erase that week's inflows.
• Liquidations hit about $1.53B across crypto in 24 hours, 84% of it longs (Block Scholes).
• Even so, aggregate BTC futures open interest was ~$28B and up 3% on the day (Coinalyze, Oct 31). Forced closures happened, but new positions kept getting opened. That is not the same as a clean leverage reset.
Levels I'm watching:
• Support: the ~$76.2K weekly low, then the October low near $76.3K area.
• Resistance: ~$80.6K, where the week opened, then ~$81.9K weekly high.
Catalyst: the US jobs report on Nov 6 (8:30 AM ET). It can shift rate expectations either way.
What would make a recovery more convincing: ETF inflows returning, steady spot buying, and funding that doesn't get more expensive for longs. What would worry me: price bouncing only because exposure is rebuilding.
Risks: another security headline, further ETF redemptions, and leveraged longs getting squeezed again. Size positions for volatility.
Are you buying this dip, or waiting for ETF flows to turn first?
Data: Kraken, Farside, Block Scholes, Coinalyze via CryptoSlate.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto
Not financial advice.
Where things stand (Kraken, Nov 1): BTC ~$77.8K. Over the last 7 days it traded between ~$76.2K and ~$81.9K, and it is roughly 3.4% below where the week started (~$80.6K).
Demand check:
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $643M of net outflows on Oct 30 (Farside), the largest daily withdrawal of the month and enough to erase that week's inflows.
• Liquidations hit about $1.53B across crypto in 24 hours, 84% of it longs (Block Scholes).
• Even so, aggregate BTC futures open interest was ~$28B and up 3% on the day (Coinalyze, Oct 31). Forced closures happened, but new positions kept getting opened. That is not the same as a clean leverage reset.
Levels I'm watching:
• Support: the ~$76.2K weekly low, then the October low near $76.3K area.
• Resistance: ~$80.6K, where the week opened, then ~$81.9K weekly high.
Catalyst: the US jobs report on Nov 6 (8:30 AM ET). It can shift rate expectations either way.
What would make a recovery more convincing: ETF inflows returning, steady spot buying, and funding that doesn't get more expensive for longs. What would worry me: price bouncing only because exposure is rebuilding.
Risks: another security headline, further ETF redemptions, and leveraged longs getting squeezed again. Size positions for volatility.
Are you buying this dip, or waiting for ETF flows to turn first?
Data: Kraken, Farside, Block Scholes, Coinalyze via CryptoSlate.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto
Not financial advice.
